By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com – The Canadian Dollar edged marginally against the US dollar, gaining some support from positive risk sentiment.
However, the Canadian dollar notched a weekly decline vs. the greenback, as the Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and expressed some optimism around cooling inflation and excess demand retreating from the Canadian economy.
Markets now expect the Bank of Canada’s next move to be a rate cut, in H12024.
The US dollar meanwhile rose against most major currencies, supported by rising US Treasury yields and readjusting market expectations for the Fed following nonfarm payrolls data.
US nonfarm payrolls came in hotter than expected at just under 200K, well above the forecast for 180K and October’s 150K gains.
Following the data release, expectations for a March rate cut from the Fed slipped to roughly down from about 65% on Thursday.
While markets aim to determine whether the BoC or Fed will cut rates first, it’s certain that rate cuts in Canada, when they come, will be more aggressive than in the United States.
Analysts at National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) note, “Looking ahead, we don't see much support for the CAD given our forecast for a slowing global economy and the potential for more aggressive interest rate cuts in Canada relative to the US due to weaker domestic demand.”
“Given our recession scenario for the Canadian economy in H1 2024, we now expect USD/CAD to move towards 1.45 in the coming quarters”.
On a technical level for the USD/CAD pair, analysts at FX Street note, “Bullish momentum looks set to stall after a bounce from the 200-day SMA just above the 1.3500 handle, and daily candles have been closing in the middle for the back half of the trading week.”
“A bullish break will take the USD/CAD back toward the 50-day SMA near 1.3700, while a downside retest of the 200-day SMA will clear the way for another bearish run at September’s swing lows into 1.3400."
Next week, US CPI data and the Fed's interest rate announcement will offer further impetus to the pair.