By Ketki Saxena
Investing,.com -- The Canadian dollar has once again surged to a nine-month high against its U.S. counterpart, fueled by increasing crude prices and expectations of further rate hikes from the Bank of Canada.
The commodity-linked loonie was supported by a jump in crude prices, as investors weigh global demand growth concerns against potential supply disruptions that may be worsened by political instability in Russia.
Investors are also closely monitoring inflation data that could solidify another rate hike from the Bank of Canada. Analysts predict that Canada's consumer price index annual growth rate will decelerate to 3.4% in May after an unexpected jump to 4.4% in April; however, core measures are anticipated to remain persistent.
The odds currently favor a Bank of Canada interest rate increase at their July 12 policy decision, with money markets estimating around a 65% chance of such a move.
On a technical level for the pair, analysts at FX Street note, "The USD/CAD maintains a bearish outlook for the short term, as per indicators on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both showing weakness, standing in negative territory approaching oversold conditions. Moreover, the pair trades below its main moving averages, indicating that the sellers have the upper hand."
"On the downside, the next support levels to watch are the daily low at 1.3136, followed by the 1.3115 zone and the psychological mark at 1.3100. Conversely, upcoming resistance for the pair is seen at the 1.3170 level, followed by the 1.3190 and 1.3200 areas."
On a fundamental level for the loonie, analysts at Societe Generale (EPA:SOGN) note, "The top G10 currency in June is the Canadian Dollar. It tends to do well when Fed rates peak, and while the outlook for Fed Funds is cloaked in plenty of uncertainty, we’re in the final stage of this tightening cycle."
Looking head, SocGen analysts note that "With the FOMC still warning of further hikes and wildfires likely to affect Canadian growth data, the fall back to the mid-1.20s won’t be in a straight line, but we think that’s where we are heading."