By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com -- The Canadian dollar reached a nine-month peak against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, driven by increasing oil prices and robust domestic retail sales data that heightened expectations of an additional Bank of Canada interest rate hike.
In April, Canadian retail sales experienced a 1.1% surge, surpassing the median forecast of a mere 0.2% increase. According to Statistics Canada data, this upward trend is likely to continue into May. The strong performance in retail sales reinforces the case for a Bank of Canada rate hike in July.
The Bank of Canada's summary of deliberations also reinforced bets for further rate hikes, noting an economy that remains "clearly in excess demand". Money markets now predict a 72% likelihood that the BoC will implement another tightening at its upcoming policy decision on July 12th - up from the previous estimate of 64% prior to this latest data release.
Bolstering support for the loonie was only oil prices as grain prices reached multi-month highs, raising expectations that global crop shortfalls could reduce biofuels blending while simultaneously driving up oil demand.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against an array of major currencies following remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell which did not meet hawkish market anticipations. Several Fed policymakers – including Atlantic Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee meanwhile took a decidedly dovish stance, calling for a "wait and see" approach regarding future rate hikes so as to allow previously implemented tightening measures time to permeate through the economy.
On a technical level for the pair, analysts at DailyFX note, "If USD/CAD breaches trendline support at 1.3150... sellers are likely to take undisputable control of the market, setting the stage for the next leg lower of the double top bearish projection.. This could imply a move toward 1.3080 ahead of a possible retest of 1.2990, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2021/October 2022 rally."
Alternatively, "If bulls fend off the current bearish assault and spark a market turnaround, initial resistance appears at 1.3270. If this barrier is taken out, buyers may regain the upper hand, paving the way for a climb toward 1.3300. Further gains may be in store for USD/CAD on a push above the 1.3300 handle, with bulls possibly eyeing the 50-day simple moving average near 1.3450 in the event of a breakout."