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Forex - Weekly outlook: June 27 - July 1

Published 2016-06-26, 07:52 a/m
© Reuters.  Pound suffers largest one-day selloff in recent history after Brexit vote
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Investing.com - The pound plunged on Friday, suffering its largest one-day selloff in recent history; while the dollar and the yen soared as a shock U.K. vote to exit the European Union reverberated around global markets.

The U.K. voted by nearly 52% to 48% on Thursday to break away from the world's biggest trading bloc.

British Prime Minister David Cameron, who had backed the failed Remain campaign, stepped down after the final referendum result was announced.

Sterling tumbled amid fears that the decision could hit investment in the U.K. economy, threaten London's role as a global financial capital and trigger months of political uncertainty.

The vote could lead to a breakup of the U.K., with Scotland now highly likely to hold a second independence referendum.

Ratings agency Moody's warned Friday that it may downgrade the U.K.’s credit rating as it lowered the outlook to “negative” from “stable” after the country voted to leave the EU.

Moody's said the result would herald "a prolonged period of uncertainty".

Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's, the only one of three major ratings agencies that still has a AAA rating on Britain, said Friday the Brexit vote meant the AAA rating was no longer tenable.

GBP/USD stood at 1.3616 late Friday, down 8% for the day, having fallen as low as 1.3228 earlier, its weakest level since mid-1985. It was the worst day for the pound since the currency’s devaluation in 1967.

The pound found some support after the Bank of England announced it was ready to pump £250 billion to aid the smooth running of markets, declaring it will take "all necessary steps" to ensure financial and monetary stability.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the BoE would consider in the coming weeks whether to take additional policy responses.

Central banks from the G7 group also said in a joint statement that they were prepared to provide additional liquidity to markets as needed.

The euro fell 2.3% against the dollar on Friday, with EUR/USD at 1.1120 late Friday.

The Swiss franc retreated from an almost one year high against the single currency after the Swiss National Bank said it had intervened in the foreign exchange market to stem gains in the traditional safe haven franc.

The yen surged against the dollar, with USD/JPY hitting lows of 99.03, last seen in November 2013, before pulling back to 102.22 in late trade.

In the week ahead traders will be continuing to digest the fallout from the Brexit vote.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at an ECB central bank conference in Portugal on Wednesday, with investors looking for indications on how Brexit will alter the outlook for the U.S. economy and the path of interest rates.

The U.S. is to release revised estimates on first quarter growth on Tuesday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 27

New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance.

Tuesday, June 28

The U.S. is to release final data on first quarter growth as well as a private sector report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, June 29

Japan is to release data on retail sales.

In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to produce initial estimates on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release data on net lending.

The U.S. is to report on personal income and spending and pending home sales.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other central bank heads are to attend the ECB central bank conference in Portugal.

Thursday, June 30

Germany is to report on unemployment change.

The U.K. is to release data on the current account.

The euro area is to unveil its preliminary inflation estimate for June.

The ECB is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting.

Canada is to report on monthly GDP growth.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims.

Friday, July 1

Japan is to release data on household spending, inflation and manufacturing and service sector activity.

China is to release official data on manufacturing and service sector activity as well as the private sector Caixin manufacturing index.

The U.K. is to release data n manufacturing activity.

The Institute of Supply Management is to report on U.S. manufacturing activity.

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