By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com – The Canadian Dollar traded largely flat against its US counterpart today. Despite solid fundamentals including a surge in crude prices, a risk- on tone, and broad-based dollar weakness - the Canadian dollar barely managed to only just eke out a gain against the USD.
Analysts attribute this, on a fundamental level, to a hotter-than-expected, stubbornly sticky Canadian CPI print that raised expectations for further Bank of Canada rate hikes. While the hotter-than-expected reading would tailwind in normal scenarios, it is problematic for the Canadian currency at a time when housing markets are declining sharply.
The USD continued to weaken against major currencies as money continues to flow out of the dollar and into other currencies, most recently the Yen, as central banks globally hike rates, minimizing the bond differentials between US treasuries and other government bonds, lowering appeal for the greenback. The trend was accelerated yesterday as Japan bond yields rose to multi-year highs following a tweak by the BoJ to its bond yield controls.
Analysts at UBS are amongst the latest to believe that the US dollar’s bull run may finally have run out of steam. They note, “We believe that the US Dollar will weaken in 2023, given that the US Federal Reserve is closer to an end of its tightening cycle than other major central banks.”
The Canadian dollar meanwhile received support from a broad risk-on tone reflected in equities. The commodity-linked loonie was also supported by a gain in crude prices following a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories, and as Saudi Arabia's energy minister reiterated his confidence in the OPEC+ decision to cut crude output.
However, the Canadian dollar severely underperformed vs. other risk-on commodity currencies, such as the AUD - which analysts attribute to today’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Reading.
Canadian inflation fell to 6.8% in October, slightly ahead of economist expectations for a 6.7% increase. More crucially, core inflation proved sticky, indicating that despite the Bank of Canada’s best efforts, inflation remains stubbornly high.
Analysts at Talk markets note that while a hotter than anticipated CPI print “Normally that would be good for a currency but in the current environment it's bad. That's because it could tilt the Bank of Canada towards another rate hike at a time when the housing market is wilting”.
They explain that these “Positive financial flows on better CAD carry are likely to be outweighed by risks around a housing decline and subsequent consumer pain, leading to a broader drop in Canadian asset prices.”
On a technical level, Analysts at Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) note, “A weak (technically bearish) close for the USD yesterday should – on the face of it – lend more weight to pressuring support around 1.36 but intraday price action suggests a firm floor and, possibly, a bullish reversal developing around the overnight failure to extend much below the figure area once again.”
They recommend support at 1.3590/00 and resistance at 1.3665/75.