By Ketki Saxena
Investing.com -- The Canadian dollar gained against its US counterpart today as risk sentiment returned to markets (despite hotter-than-expected US CPI data), spurring broad-based weakness in the greenback. The loonie meanwhile was supported by the risk-on mood, and gains in crude.
At 3:45 p.m ET, the USD/CAD pair was trading at C$1.3751 to a US dollar, down 0.46% in the day's trading, and with the day's range of 1.3708 - 1.3977.
Despite today’s hotter-than-expected US CPI data, North American equities rebounded and the safe-haven dollar pared back gains. Although expectations for a 75 bp move from the Fed in November are nearly unanimous, “a lot of the pessimism is already priced in”, in the words of Shawn Cruz, trading strategist at TD (TSX:TD) Ameritrade, and markets are for now in a jubilant mood that the data was not worse.
The flip in investor sentiment means that “USD/CAD bears are back in the driver's seat as the market is a wash with US dollar longs that are being squeezed despite the red-hot US inflation data on Thursday”, as per FX Street. “A resurgence in the oil price is also benefitting the loonie in late afternoon trade on Wall Street which has flipped risk-on.”
The commodity-linked Canadian dollar was also supported by gains in crude after the EIA’s report of low levels of diesel inventory ahead of winter. Distillate stockpiles fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended October 7, compared to expectations for a drop of 2 million barrels, the EIA said.
On a technical level for the USD/CAD pair, FX Street notes that “The reversal of the US dollar across the board could point to an interim top. In the case of USD/CAD, the move takes place after approaching the psychological 1.40 zone. If the pair manages to rise back above 1.3850 a test of 1.40 would be back on the cards.”
Up next for the pair “The price has reached a weekly resistance area and a correction could be on the cards for the meantime before the next move up. The daily chart is also encouraging bears to the table, having spiked and pinned out on the day so far. The bears, however, need to get below the horizontal and trendline support around 1.3680.”
Analysts at TD Securities also see continued upside for the pair, reiterating their forecast for 1.40 at year-end.
“Even if the next phase of USD strength is not as linear as it has been for much of this year, there is a lot of negative idiosyncratic risk coming the CAD's way with the debt servicing problem for households only in the early days.”
The analysts write that “While we have forecast 1.40 into year-end, it is no ceiling and it could very easily get worse for the CAD.” They recommend that “Dips into 1.3800/50 are a buy.”