Piper Sandler analyst Kevin Barker has revised his rating for American Express (NYSE:NYSE:AXP) from Underweight to Neutral, anticipating a deceleration in revenue growth into 2024 due to weaker credit. Despite these predictions, Barker expects American Express to achieve approximately 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next two years.
This revision comes after AXP's stock experienced an 18% drop following its Q2 earnings report, a sharper decline compared to XLF's 9.6%. Currently, AXP trades below XLF on FY24 price/earnings. Consensus estimates suggest potential difficulties for AXP in meeting its 10% revenue and 15% EPS growth targets next year. However, Barker believes the company will take measures to defend the latter target, implying that consensus estimates may be conservative.
Barker also forecasts a slowdown in network volume from Q3's year-on-year 8% to 4%, with a potential rebound to 6%-7% by late 2024. He expects net interest income growth, driven by more borrowers carrying a balance due to higher short-term rates, to counter some of this slowdown. This outlook aligns with SA Quant's Hold rating for AXP and contrasts with Wall Street and SA Analyst Buy ratings.
In addition to the rating revision, Barker has raised the price target for AXP to $151, despite expectations of a revenue slowdown and weaker credit due to macroeconomic factors into 2024. He predicts the Q4 restart of federal student loan payments will impact AXP's Millennial/Gen-Z demographic, which comprises 32% of U.S. customers. Consequently, he has revised his FY24 revenue estimate upwards to $65,475.8 million, while maintaining the FY24 EPS estimate at $11.64.
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