Nov 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday rose 3% to their highest in more than eight months as investors covered shorts on forecasts for colder-than-usual weather over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 4 cents, or 1.4%, at $2.861 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) as of 9:24 a.m. EDT (1424 GMT). Prices rose as much as 3% earlier to $2.905, highest since Feb. 26.
"Futures are higher because of short covering. Given the colder than normal outlook which is anticipated to extend through the end of November, balances are expected to tighten which has driven buy-side interest," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
In the week to Oct. 29 natural gas speculators had reduced their net short positions to 173,747 contracts, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued last week. CFTC/
Data provider Refinitiv projected 367 heating degree days (HDDs) in the Lower 48 U.S. states over the next two weeks. The normal is 250 HDDs for this time of year.
HDDs measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) and are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.
With the weather turning colder with the coming of winter, Refinitiv projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 would rise from 100.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 117 bcfd next week.
Meanwhile, gas production in the Lower 48 held at about 94.9 bcfd on Monday, according to Refinitiv data. That compares with an average of 94.3 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 95.0 bcfd on Oct. 28.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Nov. 1
average
1(Forecast) 25(Actual)
Nov. 1
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day Prior Day
Prior
10-Year
30-Year
Norm U.S. GFS HDDs
250 U.S. GFS CDDs
13 U.S. GFS TDDs
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current
Next Week This week Five-Yea
last year
Average
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
76.3 U.S. Imports from Canada
7.9 U.S. LNG Imports
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
100.8
101.8
102.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico
3.7 U.S. LNG Exports
1.5 U.S. Commercial
10.9 U.S. Residential
16.0 U.S. Power Plant
22.5 U.S. Industrial
22.8 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
102.1
79.1 Total U.S. Demand
100.5
117.0
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
26.50
22.25
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
31.57
31.59
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
33.50
30.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
52.50
35.75
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
47.50
26.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
53.50
30.75