(Corrects paragraph 11 to 2003 instead of 2013)
* Analysts eye oil below $30
* China's oil demand slowing after years of record growth
* Traders jump into Feb and March $30 puts
By Catherine Ngai
NEW YORK, Jan 11 (Reuters) - A brutal new year selloff in
oil markets quickened on Monday, with prices plunging 6 percent
to new 12-year lows as further ructions in the Chinese stock
market threatened to knock crude as low as $20 a barrel.
Amid an accelerating tailspin that shows no sign of slowing,
Monday's dive - the biggest one-day loss since September -
triggered a rash of panicky trading across the market.
Long-term futures contracts for 2017 and beyond fell nearly
as hard as those for immediate delivery as some producers rushed
to hedge, while a key options gauge surged to nearly its highest
since 2009.
The latest catalyst was a further 5 percent decline in
China's blue-chip stocks and a surge in overnight interest rates
for the yuan outside of China to nearly 40 percent, their
highest since the launch of the offshore market. Technical and
momentum selling added fuel to the selloff.
Morgan Stanley (N:MS) warned that a further devaluation of the yuan
could send oil prices spiralling into the $20-$25 per barrel
range, extending the year's 15 percent slide.
"The focus is still on China and the demand concerns in
China moving forward into 2016," said Tony Headrick, an energy
market analyst at CHS Hedging LLC.
While China's volatility is spooking traders over the
outlook for demand from the world's No. 2 consumer, drillers in
the United States say they are focused on keeping their wells
running as long as possible, despite the slump. ID:nL2N14V0RF
U.S. shale output is expected to decline by 116,000 barrels
per day in February versus the month before, the same rate as
January's estimated drop and a slower pace than many had
expected months ago, the Energy Information Administration
said.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 fell $2.00 to settle at $31.55 a
barrel, their lowest since April 2004. Brent has fallen more
than 15 percent in six straight days of losses, the worst such
slump in a year.
Long-dated Brent crude prices for 2017 and 2018 fell nearly
as hard as the tumbling front-month contract on Monday amid a
scramble of producer hedging, according to dealers.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 fell
$1.75 to settle at $31.41 a barrel, the lowest since December
2003.
The fierce selling triggered a renewed scramble to buy
options betting on a further slide, sending the CBOE volatility
index .OVX , a gauge of options premiums based on moves in the
U.S. oil exchange traded fund, over 13 percent higher to more
than 63 - close to its highest level in seven years.
Nearly 17,000 lots of March $30 puts CL300O6 and 18,000
lots of February $30 puts CL300N6 traded, doubling Friday's
volumes.
The markets are positioned in a way where "traders are
afraid to be long," said Clayton Vernon, a trader and economist
with Aquivia LLC in New Jersey. "The firm push for normalization
with Iran has taken the last shred of geopolitical risk out of
traders' minds."
The European Union said on Monday that the lifting of
sanctions on Iran could come soon, following a deal last year to
curb the Middle East nation's nuclear program. Many market
participants say that Iran's return to the oil markets would add
more pressure to the global glut that has knocked prices from
more than $100 in mid-2014.
Speculators cut their net long position to the smallest
since 2010, with short positions rising in a sign that they are
losing faith in a price rise any time soon.
GRAPHIC on short positions vs WTI crude prices http://reut.rs/1ZVvTaY
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