Proactive Investors - The upcoming US bank earnings season could bring a tidal shift for Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), analysts at UBS said.
So far this year, investor enthusiasm for BofA shares seem to lag that for money center bank rivals Citigroup , Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), the analysts noted, though all four stocks have performed fairly in-line with one another.
"We think there is a tide shift that could continue through earnings, mostly as we see potential upside revisions to '25 NII [net interest income]."
Despite a warning that NII in the second quarter will be a bit softer than expected, recent commentary on the potential exit rate at the end of this year points to the potential for positive revisions.
The analysts pointed out that core trends are not particularly differentiated between the money center banks at the moment, BofA's NII should get a "unique assist" from a $1.6 billion pre-tax charge taken last year due to the announcement of the cessation of the BSBY short-term bank yield index.
According to BofA, this would be accreted back to NII after the index's cessation in November this year, adding $150 million of NII in the fourth quarter, and $250 million per quarter thereafter over the next one and a half years.
Whether or not this is incorporated in the overall analyst consensus forecast is "hard to know".
"Hearing all this laid out on the earnings call could lead to share price outperformance on reporting day," the UBS analysts said.
BofA reports next week, July 16, but its three main money center peers report this Friday, July 12.
The market has heard from JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) multiple times prior to its pre-earnings quiet period, and its pre-prevision net revenues (PPNR) should be resilient.
"Consensus '24 provisions still sit at $10.5bn, and feels too low relative to our estimate of ~$11bn given card growth, but we think PPNR and capital return matter more.
"We expect JPM to set a solid tone to kick off earnings, but don't expect notable moves in the stock on reporting day," the analysts said.
For Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC), the analysts expect "modest upward bias" to the consensus, and think the stock "can continue its strong momentum especially if the market is confident that WFC can meet consensus expectations for $3.5bn-per-quarter of buybacks" in the second half of the year.
Citigroup Inc (NYSE:NYSE:C) at its post-CCAR stress testing update indicated a modest 6% lift in the dividend and reiterated that it will "continue to assess share repurchases on a quarter-to-quarter basis" despite a small improvement in its stress capital buffer.
The analysts said they think how Citi stock does during earnings may have more to do on how management handles follow up questions on capital return, "given the stock's persistent discount to tangible book value".