Investing.com – The Canadian Dollar fell against its US counterpart late in the trading day, although action remained thin with limited impetus for the pair ahead of an interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada later this week.
Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 5%, and to begin cutting rates only in June.
The expected hawkishness from the BoC, following hotter than expected domestic inflation data however has offered limited support to the CAD vs. the USD, as markets reprice expectations for a more hawkish Fed as well.
Market expectations are for around 125 basis points of easing in 2024, compared to expectations for 175 bps worth of rate cuts earlier in January.
Looking ahead for the pair, analysts at Rabobank expect the pair to move in a similar price action to last year, noting that “A glance at our USD/CAD forecast for the year paints a rather boring picture”.
However, in the near term, they expect some further downside from the Canadian dollar, noting that the “USD/CAD is likely to trade above 1.3500 before the end of January.”
Speculators are also bearish on the Canadian dollar, with data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showing that as of Jan 16, net short positions on the loonie had increased to 13,388 contracts from 7,380 in the prior week.
On a technical level for the pair, analysts at FXStreet note that “The USD/CAD is still at risk of consolidation following a bearish rejection from technical congestion at the 50-day and 200-day SMAs just below 1.3500, and near-term risks are pointed firmly to the downside.”
“On the high side, the USD/CAD is poised for a fresh run at last November’s peak near 1.3900 if near-term bullish momentum extends beyond last week’s swing high into 1.3550.”