Proactive Investors - Analysts at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) believe CVS Health Corp (NYSE:NYSE:CVS) is “better together” following reports the pharmaceutical chain is conducting a strategic review, including a possible breakup of its retail and insurance divisions.
According to a Wall Street Journal report after Monday’s closing bell, no decision is imminent and it is possible that no changes will be made.
“Our initial takeaway is mixed as we think focusing on improving Aetna margins could generate the most shareholder value,” analysts wrote in a note to clients.
CVS closed its acquisition of Aetna, a managed health care company, in 2018. The purpose of the deal was to enhance the integrated care of Aetna health plan members by combining pharmacy benefits, specialty medications, retail pharmacy services, and primary care.
“It is unclear if the reported strategic review would contemplate recent tuck-ins like Oak Street/Signify or a broader separation of Aetna from the retail or pharmacy benefit businesses,” the bank’s analysts noted.
They do not see CVS’ reported decision to pursue a strategic review as surprising given recent execution issues.
In a normal environment, it could be reasonable to assume that the health plan Aetna could obtain a higher earnings multiple as a standalone business, they wrote.
“However, Aetna's underperformance year-to-date is the main driver of CVS' weak share price, and it is unclear how much investors would reward that business as a standalone entity, especially on current year or next year's earnings,” they wrote.
“Put another way, we think CVS Health could generate substantial shareholder value by improving margins within Aetna over the next few years. At less than 10x 2024E EPS and significant upside potential as Aetna's earnings normalize, we see favorable risk/reward to the current CVS enterprise.”
A potential breakup also creates questions about where the Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) fits looking forward.
Analysts noted that PBMs create significant synergies for both the health plan and retail pharmacy business.
“Given CVS Caremark's longstanding integration with CVS Pharmacy, those two businesses appear more synergistic,” they wrote. “We also note that customer attrition could also be a risk if assets are split.”
Bank of America repeated its ‘Buy’ rating and $77 price objective on CVS.
Shares of CVS traded down 2.6% at about $61 in the early afternoon on Tuesday.