Investing.com -- Jefferies analysts expect strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows for the second half (2H) of 2024, building on the momentum from earlier in the year.
Through August, global ETF inflows totaled $809 billion, well ahead of the six-year annual average of $752 billion. Historically, 57% of annual ETF flows occur in the second half of the year, suggesting that inflows could further accelerate.
“If history holds, the second half should be better,” analysts wrote. “The average inflow increase in the 2H vs 1H of the year has been +37% since 2010.”
Active ETFs have gained significant traction, with $151 billion in inflows year-to-date through July, representing 29% of total industry inflows. These inflows are primarily split between fixed income (37%) and equities (31%). Active ETF flows in 2024 are tracking well above the $34 billion annual average since 2010 and are 22% higher than the $124 billion inflows recorded in 2023.
“When looking at just the US portion, active ETFs have seen an average increase of +18% in the second half while passive funds have historically seen an increase of +57%,” analysts pointed out.
The ETF market remains highly concentrated, Jefferies highlights, with the top five firms commanding around 84% of total ETF assets under management (AUM). However, since 2010, three of the five largest firms have been losing market share.
BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), which remains the dominant player, has seen its market share drop from 45% to 31%, while Vanguard's share has risen from 9% to 23%. Despite these shifts, BlackRock has accumulated $220 billion in ETF flows year-to-date through August.
Elsewhere, the international ETF market offers potential for expansion, as non-U.S. ETFs account for just 17% of AUM. BlackRock leads in this segment with a 32% market share, followed by Invesco with 15%.