Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) in a note dated Monday downgraded Daimler Truck (ETR:DTGGe) to "neutral" from a "buy" rating, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's near-term performance and market conditions.
The downgrade is due to a combination of factors, including a declining U.S. trucking market and concerns about Daimler's financial performance. It also reflects broader challenges facing the truck manufacturing industry.
Goldman Sachs' downgrade of Daimler Truck comes amidst a particularly challenging period for the global trucking industry. The brokerage analysis predicts a difficult 2025 for truck manufacturers worldwide, driven by a combination of factors.
Despite some recent improvements in Europe and China, the overall global trucking market is starting to show signs of slowing down. The U.S. market, which is crucial for Daimler, has seen a decline in sales this year and is expected to continue doing so.
“Coupled with slower pricing (recent US PPI and used trucks pricing decelerating) and near peak-level inventories of finished trucks in the latest US Class 8 data, we expect both top line and margin pressure for our trucks coverage, despite recent marginal sequential improvements in freight rates and utilization levels,” the analysts said.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs' indicates a projected decline in trucking capital expenditures, suggesting that demand and investment in the trucking sector will remain subdued for some time. The used truck market is also weakening, with lower sales and prices as fleet owners hold onto their vehicles.
Given these challenges, Goldman Sachs anticipates that all major truck OEMs will underperform the broader market average in the next two years. The firm's forecasts suggest significant risks to truck deliveries, especially in the U.S., extending at least through the middle of 2025.
Goldman Sachs' decision to downgrade Daimler Truck to "neutral" stems from a blend of company-specific challenges and broader industry concerns. A primary issue is the significant risk to Daimler Truck's earnings, particularly in the on-highway segment in the U.S., which represents the company's largest market.
Goldman Sachs anticipates a high likelihood of rapid deterioration in this segment, potentially prompting downward revisions to Daimler's guidance during the third quarter of 2024.
Following the company's second-quarter results and recent industry data, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for Daimler's performance over the next two years. The brokerage now anticipates a decline in unit sales of 3% for 2024 and 11% for 2025.
Correspondingly, the forecast for Daimler's industrial adjusted EBIT has been reduced by 7% for 2024 and by a significant 28% for 2025. In line with these more conservative estimates, Goldman Sachs has also revised Daimler's 12-month price target, lowering it from €46 to €39.
Despite these downward revisions, Goldman Sachs acknowledges Daimler's robust balance sheet, which may enable the company to return higher cash to shareholders, partially offsetting the impact of these headwinds.
However, strategic uncertainty looms, particularly regarding Mercedes-Benz (OTC:MBGAF)'s decision about its stake in Daimler Truck. This uncertainty could continue to weigh on investor sentiment and affect the company’s stock performance throughout the remainder of the year.
At 7:06 am (1106 GMT), Daimler Truck was trading 0.9% lower at €34.25.