Proactive Investors - A combination of low current valuations and a healthy economic outlook indicates that the Russell 2000 small-cap index should return roughly 9% in the next 6 months and 15% in the next 12 months, as compared with a 7% gain for the large-cap S&P 500, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:NYSE:GS) analysts believe.
In a portfolio strategy research update, the analysts also noted that despite its recent rally the Russell 2000 remains nearly 20% below the high reached in November 2021.
They argue that US economic growth, which Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) economists forecast at 2% this year, is the key driver of small cap returns from a macroeconomic perspective, as compared with the more interest rate sensitive S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100.
As well, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote that the Russell 2000 has generated positive price returns in seven of the past 10 presidential election years and outperformed the S&P 500 in eight of the 10 years, with their 15% return modeled for 2024 being roughly in line with the historical median Russell 2000 return in presidential election years.
They added that CFTC data also shows investor net positions in Russell 2000 futures rising from $5 billion short in October to $4 billion long as of last week, further fueling their optimism.