As the economy slows and inflation cools, Wells Fargo analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to begin cutting interest rates, with a 50 basis point cut expected at the September meeting.
Additional cuts are anticipated in November and December. The bank said this series of aggressive cuts should make credit cheaper and more accessible, potentially sparking economic activity and growth through 2025.
The bank adds that in the next six to twelve months, investors face two-way risks.
They note that on the upside, the shift to stronger economic and earnings growth by early 2025 could create broader opportunities in equities and commodities.
However, they explain that the potential downside risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding elections and policies both in the U.S. and internationally.
The bank states that recently, global markets have been derisking by selling equities and buying fixed income, which has driven the yen’s sharp appreciation since mid-July.
To hedge against these risks, Wells Fargo recommends rebalancing portfolios using the latest decline in short-term rates and the S&P 500 Index.
Specifically, they advise downgrading U.S. Short Term Taxable Fixed Income to increase equity exposure and returning High Yield Taxable Fixed Income to a neutral allocation.
They also suggest shifting from U.S. Long Term Taxable Fixed Income to U.S. Intermediate Term Taxable Fixed Income to benefit from the recent bond-market rally. Within equities, they recommend eliminating the tactical underweight to U.S. Small Cap Equities.
The bank believes that by following these strategies, investors can better position themselves to navigate the potential ups and downs in the market and capitalize on opportunities as the economic landscape evolves.