Investing.com -- Jefferies analysts project the S&P 500 will reach a fair value of 6,000 by the end of 2025, driven by favorable tax policies, deregulation, and market sentiment following the 2024 presidential election.
The forecast is based on a forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20x and 2026 EPS estimates of $300, which are 4% below consensus expectations, according to Jefferies.
"Our S&P 500 2025 year-end base target is 6000, based on 20x 2025 year-end forward PE and EPS (26F) of 300, which is around 4% lower than consensus," Jefferies wrote.
They highlighted the potential for further upside if corporate tax cuts materialize, potentially boosting EPS by another 5-7%.
Jefferies also outlined scenarios for both bullish and bearish outcomes. In the bull case, the S&P 500 could climb to 6800, assuming a forward PE of 22x (+1 standard deviation) and no EPS cuts, supported by accelerated rate cuts and strong investor sentiment.
In contrast, the bear case envisions a decline to 4700, driven by a 20% EPS cut to $260 and a PE derating to 18x (-1 standard deviation).
The firm identified three major macro themes: the impact of the Trump administration's tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation; sustained elevated real yields due to limited fiscal consolidation; and inflationary pressures from tariffs affecting corporate margins.
"Deregulation should favour smalls-caps, and they also benefit from a corporate tax rate cut more than large-caps.," said Jefferies.
Market sentiment is expected to remain positive, with historical data showing strong post-election gains in the S&P 500.
Buybacks, which are running 19% ahead, are another factor supporting market resilience, according to the firm.
"We like risk," stated Jefferies, reiterating their preference for small-cap biotech over large-cap pharma stocks.