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Middle East tensions could fuel stagflation - BofA

Published 2024-04-19, 12:40 p/m
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The tensions in the Middle East could result in stagflationary stocks, analysts at Bank of America Securities said in a note Friday.

The investment bank believes geopolitical uncertainty is here to stay, and the "shift to direct, rather than proxy, tensions between Iran and Israel can have significant medium-term economic and geopolitical implications, and any near-term Israeli retaliation could increase regional tensions and uncertainty."

The bank said, "Geopolitically induced spikes in commodities can be among the most challenging exogenous shocks for markets due to their potential stagflationary impact."

If a limited skirmish were to occur, BofA said it would expect no disruptions. However, in a direct war, they see a spike in the price of oil from $30 to $40.

Meanwhile, under a regional war scenario, they would expect Brent prices to reach $150 for several months. "In the case of higher for longer oil prices, we think EEMEA, Euro Area and Japan are most vulnerable economies given the higher-than-average share of energy in CPI baskets," wrote BofA.

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