Proactive Investors - The bond market is in turmoil. US yields hit 16-year highs again early Wednesday, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly a full 1% over the past three months.
That has decimated the value of bonds. The US Treasury Index, which measures the performance of Treasury bonds, has been in drawdown mode for 39 months, which is already a record by seven months.
As of Thursday afternoon, the 10-year yield clocked in at 4.712%.
The difference between 2- and 10-year yields is also shrinking, which isn’t a great sign, according to Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank
“Normally, you would’ve expected the short-term yields to ease more rapidly than the long-term yields when approaching the end of a tightening cycle, with the expectations of future rate cuts kicking in,” Ozkardeskaya said.
“But what we see [Wednesday] is bear steepening where the 10-year yield accelerates faster than the 2-year yield. The latter suggests rising inflation expectations where investors prefer to buy short-term papers and to wait for the rate hikes to end before returning to long-term papers.”
Higher yields, along with rising inflation expectations, are both bad news for equity markets, as investors brace for a recession.
Wednesday afternoon actually brought slight relief, as cooler-than-expected US private payrolls managed to temper things slightly, and the Dow managed to snap a three-day losing streak.
However, the indexes were back in the red Thursday.
"The sell-off has been really dramatic. It's been rapid. It's been huge," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco. "The market was so over-sold that it was looking for a catalyst to rally on and found it in ADP (NASDAQ:ADP)."
That's produced a scary double-whammy where the stock and bond markets are both struggling. Normally, lower-risk bonds are something of a haven for investors when equities are going belly up.
Investors should keep an eye on the S&P 500, specifically whether it falls below 4,200, according to Mott Capital Management founder Michael Kramer.
“The 4,200 mark is crucial,” Kramer said. “Not only is it where the 200-day moving average [DMA] resides, but dropping below 4,200 also means the S&P 500 no longer boasts a 20% gain from the October 2022 lows.”
“It’s worth considering how many investors might grow anxious if the 200-day moving average is breached and the index is no longer in a bull market,” he added in a note to clients.