By Senad Karaahmetovic
Cowen analysts believe shares of Vera Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VERA) could stage a meaningful rally next month. The analysts expect topline data from VERA's Phase 2b ORIGIN clinical trial of APRIL/BLyS inhibitor atacicept in IgAN in "early January."
They are positive about the trial results and expect about 40% high-dose PBO-adjusted proteinuria reduction. If this scenario materializes, Vera stock could rally 35-40%, say the analysts.
"We anticipate ~40% placebo-adjusted proteinuria reduction at 24 weeks with the 150mg dose, resulting in 35%-40% potential upside to the stock. We think blended UPCR reduction will be ~30% and that Gd-IgA1 reductions will be ~70% from baseline," they wrote in a client note.
Cowen also sees a 25% chance that a best-case outcome will take place, which calls for over 50% proteinuria reduction. A 20% chance is assigned to an outcome that the study yields concerning safety signals, which could see Vera stock crash by 70% or more.
Vera informed investors earlier that it expects to release results in the first quarter of 2023.
Vera stock price closed at $19.33 yesterday, down almost 30% year-to-date (YTD).