Goldman Sachs strategists anticipate positive average returns in global equities if a recession is avoided and inflation moderates from high levels.
They highlight that the setup entering 2024 is almost the opposite of the start of 2023, characterizing the current phase as the "optimism phase of the cycle."
The rally in equities since October is noted as one of the sharpest since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), according to the strategists.
The strategists emphasize that high and falling inflation is conducive to favorable returns, provided it is not coupled with very weak growth.
“While we believe that equity markets are likely to break out of the Fat & Flat range on the upside, the speed and scale of the rally from here is likely to be tempered; while there are upside risks to profit growth, it is still likely to remain modest, partly as lower inflation dampens nominal GDP and revenues while margins remain largely flat,” the strategists said.
“Furthermore, while lower interest rates might support higher valuations, the starting point in terms of risk premia remains very low.”
The outlook for profit growth is seen as modest, influenced by lower inflation impacting nominal GDP and revenues, coupled with largely flat margins.
Additionally, the strategists note limited room for valuation expansion, particularly in the US.