* Rouhani's election paved way for thaw
* Nuclear deal, handshake mark shift between U.S. and Iran
* But Khamenei will never accept restoring ties, diplomat
and relative say
* Normal relations with U.S. could threaten hard-liners'
power
By Parisa Hafezi and Lesley Wroughton
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Iran is unlikely to
normalise relations with the United States despite a landmark
nuclear deal reached with America and other major powers and the
first handshake between a U.S. president and a high-ranking
Iranian official in more than 30 years.
Pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, whose 2013 election
paved the way for Iran's diplomatic thaw with the West, has
signaled his willingness to improve ties with "the Great Satan"
and to discuss the regional crisis with the United States.
But analysts and officials say this improvement will go no
further than an exchange of intelligence between the two nations
through back-channels and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei has no intention of restoring diplomatic ties.
In a dramatic shift in tone between Iran and the United
States, President Barack Obama and Iranian Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif shook hands at the United Nations on
Monday. An Iranian official said it "was not preplanned".
But Iran's most powerful authority who has the last say on
all state matters, including relations with Washington, is
Khamenei and not Rouhani.
Khamenei has continued to denounce the United States
publicly, suggesting that antagonism prevailing between Iran and
the United States since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Tehran
will not abate because of the nuclear deal. Iran and the United
States severed diplomatic ties shortly after the revolution.
"How can you trust your long-time enemy? How can you do
business with a partner you don't trust? We trust American
people but not their government. And the deal has not changed
it," said a senior, hard-line security official in Tehran.
"Real believers in Iran's revolution and its pillars and
followers of our late leader (Ayatollah Ruhollah) Khomeini will
never accept it."
Khamenei has backed Rouhani's efforts to reach the deal,
under which Iran will curb its nuclear work in return for the
lifting of sanctions which have severely damaged the economy.
"But he will never accept normalisation of ties with
America," a senior Iranian diplomat, who declined to be named,
said. "For the leader it is just a non-negotiable red line."
Khamenei's hard-line loyalists, drawn from among Islamists
and Revolutionary Guards, fear that normalisation of ties with
the United States might weaken their position.
"Restoring ties with the United States, which Rouhani and
his camp are in favour of, poses an existential threat to
hard-liners. If it happens, Rouhani's power and popularity will
surpass Khamenei's," said political analyst Hamid Farahvashian.
PRESERVING BALANCE
But Khamenei, since taking over in 1989 from Khomeini, has
been adept at ensuring that no group, even hard-liners, gain
enough momentum to challenge the power of the Islamic Republic's
second supreme leader.
"The leader strongly believes in America's devilish
intentions. He will never approve normalisation of ties with
America," said a Khamenei relative, who asked not to be named.
Easing economic sanctions and ending Iran's isolation will
bolster Rouhani's position within Iran's complex power
structure, analysts said. Iranians could reward pro-Rouhani
candidates at the ballot box in February elections for
parliament and for the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body with
nominal power over the supreme leader, analysts say.
A senior U.S. official said that Khamenei was "very savvy"
about holding on to the power that he has.
"Iran has politics ... I think he lets those politics play
out. The revolution is still very present in that country and
the tenets of that revolution," U.S. lead nuclear negotiator and
under-secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, said.
Some analysts argued that Rouhani was not seeking
normalisation of ties. "At best, it amounts to détente," said
senior Iran analyst Ali Vaez from International Crisis Group.
"For Ayatollah Khamenei the nuclear accord was purely
transactional, not transformational ... Neither President
Rouhani nor any other actor in the Islamic Republic will be able
to successfully challenge this vision."
EXCHANGE OF INTELLIGENCE
However, Iran and the United States will continue to
cooperate through back-channels on regional issues aimed at
reducing conflict in the Middle East, officials and analysts
say.
"We cannot expect embassies to be reopened in Tehran and
Washington ... but we will continue to share information about
Iraq, Syria and other regional common interests. We have done it
in the past," said an Iranian official, who asked not to be
named.
Tehran and Washington have common interests and threats
across the Middle East and they have cooperated tactically in
the past, including when Iran helped the United States to
counter al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Islamic State in Iraq.
Ali Ansari, director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at
the University of St. Andrews, said, "There will be more
informal exploration of collaboration on a case-by-case basis
before normalising relations is given serious consideration."
Iran continues to support Islamist militant groups such as
Hezbollah, a close ally -- like Iran -- of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad in his war with rebels trying to overthrow him.
"One of those issues where we disagree very strongly with
Iran where it may make sense to have some kind of discussions is
Syria," Sherman said, adding that issues in Syria were
"staggeringly complex, difficult and can't be reduced to a
simple answer."
Sherman doubted that relations will improve any time soon.
The Iranian official agreed. "Normalisation of ties seems
impossible at least in the near future. But who knows what will
happen in 10 years," he said.
(Writing by Parisa Hafezi, editing by Peter Millership)