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Canadian dollar retreats from 4-week high as market distrusts inflation uptick

Published 2019-04-17, 04:48 p/m
© Reuters.  Canadian dollar retreats from 4-week high as market distrusts inflation uptick
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* Canadian dollar near flat against the greenback

* Annual inflation rate edges up to 1.9% in March

* Trade deficit falls in February to C$2.9 billion

* Canadian bond prices fall across the yield curve

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO, April 17 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, pulling back from an earlier four-week high as investors doubted that a pick-up in domestic underlying inflation would be sustained.

Canada's annual inflation rate edged up to 1.9% in March from 1.5% in February, while two out of three of the Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation edged up into the 2.0% range, Statistics Canada data indicated. loonie notched its strongest intraday level since March 20 at 1.3275 after the data, but then gave back all its gains.

"The market is skeptical that there is a true uptick in core inflation," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "Looking forward, if the acceleration in core inflation continues the market will have to change course."

A shift in sentiment could see expectations unwind for an interest rate cut this year, Button said.

Chances of a policy easing by December fell to 20% from about 25% before the data, the overnight index swaps market indicated. BOCWATCH

Separate data from Statistics Canada showed Canada's trade deficit declined for a second straight month in February, falling slightly to C$2.9 billion, after reaching a record high of C$4.8 billion in December 2018. 4:02 p.m. (2002 GMT), the Canadian dollar CAD=D4 was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3346 to the greenback, or 74.93 U.S. cents.

The pullback for the loonie from an earlier four-week high came as the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, turned lower.

U.S. crude oil futures CLc1 settled down 0.5% at $63.76 a barrel as U.S. government data showed inventories drew down less than an industry report had suggested on Tuesday, offsetting upbeat economic reports from China. right-of-center party swept to power in Canada's main oil-producing province of Alberta on Tuesday and attacked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's efforts to fight climate change, raising tension just months ahead of a federal election. government bond prices were lower across the yield curve, with the two-year CA2YT=RR down 4.5 Canadian cents to yield 1.658% and the 10-year CA10YT=RR falling 14 Canadian cents to yield 1.799%.

The gap between Canada's two-year yield and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by 3.4 basis points to a spread of 74.6 basis points in favor of the U.S. bond.

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