- The jury’s still out on the health of the US consumer as investors weigh winners and losers of retail earnings season
- Outlier earnings dates this week: Bath & Body Works, Dollar Tree, Hibbett Inc. (HIBB), Big Lots
- This next big test of consumer strength will be Friday’s job report
If there’s one takeaway from Q1 retail earnings that have been pouring in the last few weeks, it’s that the US consumer may not be as resilient as they were to inflationary pressures in 2023. Those offering value such as certain discounters like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), and off-price retailers like TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) continue to steal market share while other names struggle to attract discretionary dollars as consumers become more choosy.
And it’s not just in retail earnings where we’re seeing this cooling. April Retail Sales came in lighter than expected, flat on the month vs. an expectation for 0.4% growth over March, the lowest reading since January posted a negative result. The recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for May showed the lowest reading in five months, posing a risk to consumer spending.
While the first quarter earnings season is more or less done at this point, there are a few retail results still trickling in. We couldn’t help but notice four names anticipated to report this week with later than usual dates.
Academic research shows that when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it’s typically a sign that the company will share bad news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.
1. Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI)
Company Confirmed Report Date: Tuesday, June 4, BMO (TSX:BMO)
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, May 23, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -3*
Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI) is set to report Q1 2024 results on Tuesday, June 4. This is nearly two weeks later than expected based on historical reporting timelines. This is the latest they’ve reported for Q1 since the separation of the Victoria’s Secret business in 2021, but also the latest the company has ever reported in the last 10 years, including when they were L Brands.
After a couple of decent quarters, BBWI is expected to report flat YoY earnings for Q1, and a revenue decline of 2%, according to FactSet data.
* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company's 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.
2. Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, June 5, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, May 23, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -3*
Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) is set to report Q1 2024 results on Wednesday, June 5. This is nearly two weeks later than expected based on historical reporting timelines. This is also the latest they’ve ever released first quarter results, typically reporting in a range of May 21 - 31. DLTR is also bucking their Thursday reporting trend by reporting on a Wednesday during the 23rd week of the year (WOY) vs. the 21st or 22nd WOY in the past.
Back in March it was announced that Family Dollar, owned by Dollar Tree, would be shuttering nearly 1,000 stores. A consumer pullback has only exacerbated the retailer’s losing battle to competitors such as Walmart and Dollar General (NYSE:DG). The Dollar Tree brand however announced just last week they were acquiring leases for 170 99 Cent Only outlet locations, while simultaneously announcing layoffs at their headquarters. It remains to be seen if any strength at Dollar Tree can offset weakness from the Family Dollar brand which has been the culprit of poor overall results for the last several quarters.
3. Hibbett Inc. (HIBB)
Company Confirmed Report Date: Wednesday, June 5, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Friday, May 31, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -2*
Hibbett (NASDAQ:HIBB) is set to report FQ1 2025 results on Wednesday, June 5. This is three days later than expected based on historical reporting timelines. This the first time HIBB has reported Q1 in the 23rd week of the year, usually reporting in the 21st or 22nd. It’s also the first Wednesday report, bucking their usual Friday trend.
Hibbett had a rough Q4, with EPS falling 12% YoY and revenues missing Wall Street expectations by $11M, all which sent the stock south. However, on April 23 it was announced that HIBB would be acquired by JD (NASDAQ:JD) Sports Fashion to the tune of $1.1B, sending the stock up 21% YTD.
The athletic apparel and shoe store directly competes with Dick’s Sporting Goods which actually just reported robust Q1 results due to strength in sneakers, apparel and athletic gear. Expectations for HIBB are fairly muted. According to FactSet, EPS is expected to fall 4% YoY with revenues anticipated to come in flat.
4. Big Lots Inc. (BIG)
Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, June 6, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Friday, May 31, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -3*
Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) is set to report Q1 2024 results on Thursday, June 6. This is nearly one week later than expected based on historical reporting timelines. This is the latest they’ve reported for Q1, typically reporting in a range from May 26 - June 1. This is also the first time they’ve reported on a Thursday, bucking the long time Friday reporting trend.
It’s been a rough year for Big Lots which has seen its stock plummet 56% YTD. Despite discounters being favored in this high inflation environment, BIG has not been one of the winners in the space. For Q4, EPS missed expectations by five cents, and while revenues beat, they still fell 7% YoY. Fiscal Year 2024 results also fell 14% YoY.9
The Bottom Line
The next big predictor of consumer spending will be May jobs numbers out on Friday. As we head into summer, certain segments of travel, discount and off-price remain consumer favorites. However, with inflation fatigue setting in and the job market softening ever so slightly, consumers will likely continue to be selective with how they allocate their discretionary income.