While there was nothing groundbreaking in Chair Yellen's perfunctory testimony, she unambiguously drew attention to inflation as the critical determinant of Fed rate hikes. Given the market’s tepid inflation expectations, traders quickly repriced an even more cautious rate hike cycle as December odds fell to 50% from ~70% on the view that her written testimony was dovish.
Forex traders immediately reached for yield while equity markets took flight on the dovish Fed expectation. Nothing better for investment sentiment than Dr Yellen providing an upbeat economic assessment with a tepid inflation outlook. One of those days you can have your cake and eat it.
Equity markets were not all that took flight, the loonie soared after Bank of Canada Governor Poloz delivered an unexpectedly 'hawkish' hike that increased the odds dramatically for a longer rate hike cycle.Traders will view this as very hawkish and should be more inclined to leg into long CAD while institutional investors might flock to CAD, seizing the opportunity to catch a rare and actionable policy shift from a central bank. With a little help from WTI oil, I think the loonie could test 1.2200 before year-end.
The Carry Trade landscape had deteriorated of late on the back of the mini-bond market tantrums as a hawkish central bank narrative was unfolding last week. However, Tuesday’s comments by Fed President Harker and Governor Brainard were broadly dovish (worrying about persistently soft inflation) saw US Treasury yields fall in response and continued to rally throughout Yellen’s congressional testimony. So the chase for yield is back on as EM FX high-yielders like TRY and ZAR outperformed on a dovish Fed outlook.
Since inflation will drive the Fed mandate, Friday’s CPI data remains exceptionally important as the USD remains particularly vulnerable to another inflationary wobble. With the Fed back in a wait-and-see mode, the enormity of Friday’s CPI print cannot be overstated. If the data produces a fourth consecutive miss, it brings into question the Fed’s contention that inflation is transitory. US yields would unquestionably rally, and the bond rally extension could leave the dollar in world of hurt
Euro
I think it a safe to say that if the Feds are concerned about inflation, the ECB will err likewise. Keeping in mind that eurozone inflation has edged further below the European Central Bank’s target in June due to a sharp decrease in the rate of energy price inflation. And with sagging oil prices unlikely to rebound significantly higher anytime soon, traders took profits and drove the euro below 1.1400 briefly before finding a happy medium above 1.1425 as dealers take a pause for now. It’s unlikely the euro will reverse course, but traders are now awaiting the next round of ECB rhetoric. However, I also think it’s safe to say the rates selloff (driven by long unwinds) is done for now.
Japanese Yen
While the short-term picture remains uncertain, as markets whip around on the back of US yields, BOJ accommodation and a high bounce in risk appetite should be supportive of USDJPY long-term. But with US CPI looming I suspect dealers will be more inclined to book what ever profit they can but be extremely reluctant to enter dollar longs. As such, were unlikely to see too much of a bounce higher today.
Australian Dollar
The domestic calendar is very light, so the AUD is benefiting from the broader USD weakness, a bounce in risk sentiment and a jump in oil prices after a bigger than expected drop in US stockpiles are playing positively into the Aussie basket.