Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note topped 3.80% (+10 basis points), reaching its highest level since early March. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note surged by 28...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...

The 10-year Treasury yield was up 5 basis points to 3.57%, hitting four-week highs on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. The 2-year Treasury...

Though data showed that wholesale inflation was cooling more than expected, Treasury yields ticked higher this week after hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He advocates for more...

The 10-year Treasury rate continues to trade well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the days of a large premium look numbered. As evidence mounts that inflation continues to...

Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...

If you have been reading my public articles on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into...