Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The yield on the US 2-year Treasury rose almost 18 basis points for the week to 4.73% reinforcing the yield curve inversion as the yield on the 30-year Treasury was down 8 basis points to 4.31% and...

By Benjamin SchroederPayrolls day is usually pivotal. This one more than most, as the US 10-year has fallen sharply from 5% down towards 4% without material evidence of any labor market recession. We...

By Benjamin SchroederThe 10-Year UST yield is closing in on the 4% mark as if a weak jobs report tomorrow was a given. But underlying is also a further slide of inflation expectations. The front end...

By Benjamin SchroederThe fair value number for the US 10-year yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payrolls number first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless...

Treasury yields took a nosedive amid ongoing rate cut bets following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, normally known as a hawkish voice, who suggested on Tuesday that the...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyFinancial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederRates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

Government bond yields, which had rapidly retreated last week amid hopes the Fed has finished its rate hike cycle, changed little over this holiday-truncated week. The U.S .10-year Treasury yield...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...

The October reading of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI), a major inflation gauge, reassured investors. The annual rate cooled to 3.2% from September's 3.7%, falling under 3.3% forecasts. Core...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow....

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...