Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The US 10-2 year Treasury yield spread widened again (-95 bps) after the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up from 3.74% to 3.77% while...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

US jobless claims surged to their highest level in 20 months, fueling speculation of an imminent pause by the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy next week, even if surprise rate hikes from...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Despite a rebound on Friday after jobs data topped expectations, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 10 basis points over the week to 3.70%. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year...

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note topped 3.80% (+10 basis points), reaching its highest level since early March. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note surged by 28...

Recent macro data showing a slowing economy and easing inflation have substantiated the prospect of the Fed rate hike pause after the tenth interest rate increase in just a little over a year. Over...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

The Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates for the tenth time in a row, extending its 14-month crackdown on stubborn inflation and bumping the federal funds rate to a target range of 5 to 5.25%....

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...

Trailing yields have recently increased for most of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns about the...

U.S. Treasury yields declined for the last week of April as traders digested key economic data that may have an impact on the Fed’s policy decision in early May. Wages and salaries for...

Markets are understandably skittish about the health of the financial sector, which allows bonds to act as a safe haven. We would be wary of acting on large market moves ahead of a week heavy in event...