Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.19% on Thursday, peaking for the first time since November 2022, but retreated significantly on Friday, ending at 4.04% (+8 basis points over the week) in...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

Government bonds experienced a sharp decline after the US economy grew stronger than expected in the second quarter and the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark...

The Federal Reserve is poised to resume raising interest rates this month after keeping them unchanged in June. Traders anticipate a boost of a quarter of a percentage point, but some speculate that...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

The most recent data release unveiled a moderate 0.2% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the preceding month, following a slight 0.1% upturn observed in May. Furthermore, the...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...

Hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped push a closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to its deepest inversion since early March, once again putting a...

The US 10-2 year Treasury yield spread widened again (-95 bps) after the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate hikes.The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up from 3.74% to 3.77% while...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

US jobless claims surged to their highest level in 20 months, fueling speculation of an imminent pause by the Federal Reserve in its monetary policy next week, even if surprise rate hikes from...

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has been trading in a very tight space for months. Or better stated, it has been narrowing/tightening for months.This all comes after a...

Despite a rebound on Friday after jobs data topped expectations, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 10 basis points over the week to 3.70%. Concurrently, the yield on the 2-year...