The Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the Wednesday session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2667, down 0.16% on the day. On the release front, both Canada and the U.S. release Trade Balance, and the U.S. will also publish ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will set the benchmark rate and the US releases ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.
The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on the sidelines and leave the benchmark rate at an even 1.00% on Wednesday. Although some analysts don’t expect the BoC to raise rates before next April, that timetable could change if last week’s sparkling numbers continue. On Friday, employment change soared to 79,500, crushing the estimate of 10,200. This marked 12 straight months of job gains and helped drive the unemployment rate down to 5.9%. As well, September GDP rebounded with a gain of 0.2%, edging above the estimate of 0.1%. The impressive numbers boosted the Canadian dollar by some 1.6% on Friday, its strongest one-day gain in 2017. On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar climbed to its highest level since Oct. 24. If today’s BoC rate statement sounds optimistic about the Canadian economy, the loonie rally could continue. Another factor that the BoC must take into account is expected rates hikes in the U.S. in December and January. If the Fed does raise rates at its next two policy meetings, the BoC would have to follow suit with a raise of its own, or watch the Canadian dollar head lower.
The U.S. labor market has been red-hot, but the markets are bracing for some weak November numbers. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is expected to slow to 189,000, compared with 235,000 in the previous release. Investors are, of course, much more interested in the official nonfarm employment change release, which takes place on Friday. Again, the markets are expecting a soft landing, with a forecast of 200,000, down from 261,000 in the October release. If nonfarm payrolls, one of the most important indicators, is weaker than expected, the U.S. dollar could lose ground.
Wednesday (Dec. 6)
Thursday (Dec. 7)
*All release times are GMT
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017
USD/CAD, Dec. 6 at 7:55 EDT
Open: 1.2687 High: 1.2707 Low: 1.2657 Close: 1.2667
USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has edged lower in European trade
Further levels in both directions:
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (58%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD continuing to move lower.
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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