CAD
This afternoon’s retail sales data marks the last major data release before the BoC announces its rate decision next week. That said, we doubt it can do anything to derail the prospect of a cut being announced on July 24th. Markets expect to see headline sales contract by -0.6% in May, which should further support an argument that the Canadian economy is stuck in a rut. But even a decent overshoot would do little to disrupt the narrative that points to inflation continuing to cool back to target. With this in mind, we see little reason for market expectations not to end the week fully pricing a BoC cut, an outcome that is likely to see the loonie continuing to soften at the margin this afternoon, with USDCAD extending its climb higher after yesterday’s 0.15pp gain.
USD
The dollar spent much of yesterday’s session unwinding Wednesday’s losses, with the greenbacks’ charge higher continuing through this morning’s trading. This comes as Donald Trump avoided any major macro themes in his speech to the RNC, while markets continued to digest his earlier comments suggesting a preference for a weaker dollar. As we see it, while Trump’s statements are naturally a concern for dollar bulls, there is no simple mechanism for him to achieve the desired dollar weakness, even if he were to win the presidency in November. Rather, the prospect of tariffs, expansionary fiscal spending, and elevated geopolitical risk continues to offer a dollar-positive backdrop, with this realisation underpinning yesterday’s dollar recovery. Looking forward, these two competing narratives look likely to be a major driver of dollar price action over the quieter summer period, with political risks likely to stay front and centre for the dollar heading into the weekend too, with speculation continuing to swirl over the future of Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic candidate for President.
EUR
As expected, yesterday’s ECB meeting did little for either eurozone rate expectations or the euro. All three main policy rates remained unchanged, while President Lagarde offered minimal forward guidance on the likely ECB rate path beyond an indication that the September meeting remained “wide open”. Granted, this arguably lent marginally more hawkish than some had expected, with a handful of sell-side desks looking for more concrete signals around the September meeting. Nonetheless, markets continue to price an 80% chance that the ECB’s next move is set to be a cut, virtually unchanged when compared to expectations pre-meeting. With the ECB ultimately proving a non-event for traders, that left EURUSD at the mercy of dollar dynamics through yesterday afternoon, a fact that saw the pair fully reverse Wednesday’s climb as the greenback rallied across the board.
GBP
Capping off a busy week for UK data prints, this morning’s June retail sales release does little to help sterling traders trying to assess the odds of BoE easing next month. Indeed, coming the back of hot inflation and in-line wage data, today’s soft retail sales figures are only likely to muddy the waters for markets. Admittedly, cold weather in June likely played a role in seeing headline sales slip -1.2%MoM. But, weak sales data also hints at softening consumer demand, a contrasting economic signal to that offered by other data this week. In our view, the MPC is still likely to place the most weight on Wednesday’s inflation figures, which tilts the balance of risks towards an August policy hold. However, as we noted earlier in the week, the details across this latest round of data continue pointing to normalisation progress, meaning that the door is far from shut on a rate cut next month too. All told then, current market implied odds that suggest the chance of a rate cut stands just shy of 50%, look right to us. These finely balanced risks leave sterling at the mercy of BoE speak and macro-cross currents for the time being, a dynamic that played out yesterday, with sterling in retreat alongside much of the G10 FX complex against the dollar to end the session down 0.5%.
This content was originally published by our partners at Monex Canada.