Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your experience. Save up to 40% More details

FX And The Possibility Of Thanksgiving Breakouts

By Kathy LienForexNov 27, 2019 01:15
FX And The Possibility Of Thanksgiving Breakouts
By Kathy Lien   |  Nov 27, 2019 01:15
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

Kathy Lien is Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management

It is a holiday week here in the United States and yesterday’s muted moves had investors looking forward to a quiet rest of the week for currencies. The forex market will trade continuously over the next few days but the equity and bond markets in the U.S. will be closed on Thursday with a half day on Friday.

However with President Trump expected to make a decision on the HK bill and trade headlines ramping up, we would not be surprised if low liquidity during the holidays leads to an expansion in volatility. In fact, currencies actually have a history of breaking out or reaching new milestones the week of Thanksgiving. Just take a look at the charts below.

In 2017 EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit a 1 month high Thanksgiving day while USD/JPY fell to a 2 month low the day before Thanksgiving. In 2016, the EUR/USD dropped to an 11 month low the week of Thanksgiving while USD/JPY rose to a 7 month high. There was no meaningful movement in sterling that year.

In 2015, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fell to a 7-month low the week of Thanksgiving as USD/JPY consolidated. In most cases, the trend that was in place immediately before the holidays continued. No major milestones was reached in 2018 but if there’s a breakthrough on trade, we could see USD/JPY hit fresh 5 month highs above 109.50 and EURUSD slip to 1 month lows below 1.10. Risk appetite remains bid as Trump said yesterday the U.S. and China are nearing a trade deal but he wants to see things go well in HK.

Fundamentally, there’s not much on the U.S. calendar but nothing matters more than the headlines. The euro and Canadian dollar will be in focus, with confidence and labor market numbers scheduled for release from the Eurozone and GDP numbers from Canada Thursday and Friday. Comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr could also inspire a big move in the New Zealand dollar. NZD was the best performer yesterday, thanks to strong retail sales—spending grew 3 times more than expected in the third quarter.

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Performance 2015-2017
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Performance 2015-2017
FX And The Possibility Of Thanksgiving Breakouts

Related Articles

Kathy Lien
AUD Bounces Off 0.70; Euro Underperforms By Kathy Lien - Dec 07, 2021

The US dollar rallied on Monday against some but not all of the major currencies.  Our readers should not find the rally in USD/JPY or decline in EUR/USD surprising because we...

FX And The Possibility Of Thanksgiving Breakouts

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Post also to:
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
Sign up with Email