🔺 What to do when markets are at an all-time high? Find smart bargains, like these.See Undervalued Stocks

Q4 GDP Nowcast Suggests Economy Is on Track to Post Moderate Growth

Published 2024-01-19, 07:33 a/m

Next week’s official release of US GDP data for the fourth quarter remains on track to post a moderate increase, based on a median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is projected to report on Jan. 25 that growth slowed to a 1.9% gain (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to today’s revised median nowcast.

That’s a sharp slowdown from Q3’s strong 4.9% increase. Nonetheless, the current estimate for the final quarter of 2023 suggests that the US ended last year with a solid, albeit slowing economic tailwind.

US Real GDP Change

Today’s median Q4 nowcast is modestly higher vs. the previous update, published on Jan 5, when the median estimate was 1.6%.

This week’s retail sales report for December underscores the economy’s resilience at the end of 2023.

Retail spending rose more than forecast last month, persuading economists that consumer activity continues to provide a solid base for growth.

“The economy is still flying high enough and economists can take down those recession forecasts this year,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

“For Fed officials, the economy is not too hot and not too cold, but it is just right perhaps for a few interest rate cuts in 2024.”

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.