Record High For Gold? Charts Not Promising But Longs Count On Grand Year

Gold has already risen almost 20% on the year. Can it go up another 25% before the year is out?

It’s a pertinent question because that’s what it would take for the yellow metal to write a new record high.

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With just four months to go before the year comes to a close, there’s little probability gold will rise that much. Yet, longs are betting against bets that this will be a phenomenal year for the cherished safe haven—meaning anything could be possible.

Gold ETF Holdings Hit 2013 High, Price At 6-Year Peaks

Just as risk assets took a beating and global central banks confirmed a shift to looser monetary policy, inflows in gold ETFs rose 101.9 tons in August, hitting the highest level since February 2013.

That third consecutive-month surge brought total assets to 2,453.4 tons as of Friday, Bloomberg reported on Monday, after the addition of an aggregated 154.1 tons in June and July.

U.S. gold futures hit six-year highs of $1,565 per ounce on Aug 26, coming within $350 of making a new record high that would smash 2011's peak of $1,911.60.

In Monday’s European trade, as U.S. markets were shut for the Labor Day holiday, gold futures settled at $1,538.10 in electronic trading.

Technicals Signal A 'Strong Buy'

Investing.com’s Daily Technical Indicator has a “Strong Buy” recommendation on gold futures, projecting a top-end resistance of $1552.65 that could catapult the market back toward a test of the $1,565 level.

Bullion hit 2013 highs on Aug 29, reaching $1,550.42. That puts it about $370 short of its 2011 peak of $1,920.80. On Monday, bullion stood at $1,529.20.

The indicator also has a “Strong Buy” recommendation on bullion, projecting a top-end resistance of $1543.67 that could catapult the market back toward a test of the $1,550 level.

Goldman Sachs said prices are likely to advance further as central bank purchases continue and demand for ETFs rises.

Trade War, Geopolitical Tensions Keep Rally Alive

While there’s no certainty that either gold or bullion will hit all-time highs before the year is out, the trade war and a host of other tensions—primarily the U.S.-Iran conflict—are keeping gold bugs’ hopes for a major payday in 2019 alive.

Gold has basically thrived on bad news this year. And there’s plenty of scope for disappointing news ahead, from the ongoing trade war to potential for dismal European manufacturing or retail sales data.

Case in point were the 15% U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that came into force on Sunday, affecting 91.6% of apparel imports, 68.4% of home textile merchandise and 52.5% of footwear imports.

Rate Cut Hopes Fuel More Optimism

Markets, meanwhile, continue to price in an additional 25 basis point cut in rates at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next policy decision, slated for Sept. 17-18. Lower interest rates tend to support gold by reducing the yield on bonds, which compete for the capital of risk-averse investors.

Reuters reported yesterday that central banks across a group of 37 developing economies showed a net 14 rate cuts last month—the highest number since policymakers' hefty stimulus measures that ensued the 2008 financial crisis.

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speak at events on Wednesday that could shed light on the Fed’s direction for rates.

Chance To Hit $1,440 Lows As Well As Peak Above $1,625

However, not all are optimistic about the gold rally continuing.

Mahmoud Alkudsi, a strategist for the precious metal, noted that gold closed in the red for the first time in four weeks last week.

He said:

“It’s worth noting that a top failure swing occurred after the Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked in mid-August above 70; then in August 25 failed to exceed its previous peak. Few days later, the oscillator broke below previous trough indicating to uptrend loss of momentum.”

Alkudsi added that if gold closed beneath $1,510, bullion could press toward $1,440.

“On the other hand, any failure in closing below the low end of the zone may send XAU/USD (bullion) back towards the high end of the zone.

“Further close above the high end could resume bullish price action toward the vicinity of $1,625-27.”