We start with a discussion of the “two different economies, two different stock markets” problem – why that’s the case, who’s winning, who’s losing, and how and when this “glaring gap of historic proportions” could get closed. Peter then shifts to a discussion of the Artificial Intelligence/AI boom, the surge in tech investment, and why a “Show me the money” moment might be coming soon. We pivot next to a discussion of the post-Covid changes in the economy, from increased government spending to higher-for-longer interest rates, and how a normalization of the latter “takes a lot of time and takes a lot of pain.” He highlights one particularly vulnerable sector and one particularly vulnerable group of businesses – as well as the “canary” he’s seeing that might point to increased market stress in he months ahead.
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