CAD
June CPI data was in focus for loonie traders yesterday, and based on those numbers, we think there is little reason for the BoC not to cut rates when they meet next week. The data confirms that May’s inflation uptick was just a blip, even as the balance of economic risks looks increasingly skewed to the downside. While markets had anticipated price growth of 0.1% MoM in June – aggregate prices actually fell outright, declining by -0.1% last month. This left inflation running at 2.7% YoY, fully reversing May’s upside surprise, with indicators for underlying inflation also pointing to further cooling price pressures. Against the backdrop of a weak labour market, soft economic growth, and forward-looking indicators that suggests more disinflation pressure remains in the pipeline, yesterday’s data should be the last piece of the puzzle ahead of the BoC’s meeting next week. We think a July rate cut should now be a done deal for the Governing Council, a view seemingly shared by markets too, with swaps now pricing a 90% chance of a rate cut this month. Yet despite this, USDCAD managed to end Tuesday trading virtually unchanged, belying the growing mountain of soft domestic data. That said, this leaves the loonie looking increasingly rich in our eyes too – we expect USDCAD to retrace higher as markets continue to digest yesterday’s soft data.
USD
Yesterday’s US retail sales ultimately did little for the dollar, despite landing marginally better than expected, reflecting the current inflection point at which the greenback sits. On a broad reading, US data has largely pointed to a soft landing in recent weeks, but signs of softening consumer demand have also suggested growing downside risks. With this in mind, the June retail sales data proved net neutral for traders, with the positive dollar effects from an expectations overshoot offset by more evidence favouring a soft-landing scenario at the margin. Looking forward, a quiet data calendar is likely to see traders focus turn elsewhere for the remainder of the week, with the Third Plenum in China and a mix of inflation and labour market data across other G10 economies set to keep FX markets busy.
EUR
Yesterday’s session was mixed for G10 currencies, seeing losses for Antipodean FX and the Japanese yen, moderate gains for the Swiss franc and the Norwegian krone, with most other currencies struggling for direction, including the euro. This was despite ZEW expectations indices recording a notable fall in July for Germany and the eurozone. Granted, the EURUSD trading range did widen through the day on a broad dollar rally following stronger-than-expected US retail sales in June. However, this move soon corrected, leaving the EURUSD once again debating which side of 1.09 to trade on. With the balance of risks relatively balanced between the narrowing Eurozone/US rate differentials and political developments surrounding the US presidential elections, we suspect that any incoming headlines regarding the latter could dynamite the pair’s price action given relatively stable ECB and Fed pricing at present. In this regard, we continue to stress that news from the Governing Council this week is likely to add little new information to what is already seen as a feasible path of cuts this year in the Eurozone.
GBP
The pound popped in early trading as UK CPI for June managed to overshoot expectations. Of the three main readings typically watched by markets, headline, core, and services inflation all remained unchanged on an annual basis. At face value, this looks like the kind of sticky inflation that would see the MPC holding rates next month. Digging through the details of today’s report, however, tells a slightly different story. Hotels, concert tickets, coaches, and airfares all saw a notable price uptick. Coincidentally, June was also when Taylor Swift played the first leg of her UK tour. Putting two and two together then, we think this was a one-off effect, unlikely to be repeated in July. Nonetheless, optics matter for the BoE, and these headline readings are likely to pose a challenge for MPC doves. We now think that Bank Rate is likely to remain unchanged next month, with a start to policy easing only coming in September, a view seemingly shared by markets too, with GBPUSD threatening the key psychological level of $1.30 this morning.
This content was originally published by our partners at Monex Canada.