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The dollar climb continues

Published 2024-10-03, 07:36 a/m

CAD

Despite continued conflict in the Middle East, the loonie gave back some oil-fueled gains through Wednesday trading. This move higher for USDCAD is likely to extend today too, with PMI readings the only data of note set to be published in Canada. More to the point, we suspect that both the composite and services prints are likely to be soft once again. If we are right this should mean further loonie downside ahead of Friday’s US payrolls report.

USD

The dollar spent another day posting gains on Wednesday, with the DXY index rising 0.6%. Underpinning this turnaround in the dollar’s fortunes, we think there are three factors of note. First, dovish noises from new Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba, alongside BoJ Governor Ueda, saw the prospects of a further rate hike this year collapse, weighing notably on the yen. Second, ongoing tensions in the Middle East are seeing the dollar pick up a notable haven bid. Finally, we would be surprised if there wasn’t a little position squaring heading into Friday’s payrolls too, which given the dollar slide over the past two months, should be supportive of greenback upside. These latter two factors should continue to favour the greenback as well, with challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, and ISM services readings all on the docket for today.

EUR

EURUSD continued to drift lower yesterday in line with broad dollar moves, while domestically, unemployment data proved a non-event with aggregate readings for the bloc matching market expectations to remain unchanged at 6.4%. Today, second and third-tier data prints should prove similarly undisrupted for the euro, leaving market attention squarely on a lineup of ECB speakers headlined by Chief Economist Phillip Lane, as the main points of interest for markets.

GBP

After a quiet few days on the data front, sterling traders finally have something to dig their teeth into this morning, with the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel set to be published at 09:30 BST. Markets are looking for a mixed bag of inflation expectations readings, however, which should keep the pound treading water if realised. Rather, the key driver for GBP this morning is a comment from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey suggesting that the BoE could accelerate its pace of easing. This is something that we have called for in recent months, given our house view that upside inflation risks are overstated. A concurrence from the BoE Governor though, is certainly causing ripples in markets. Traders now see a 70% chance of back-to-back rate cuts to end the year, with these odds having stood at just shy of 50% yesterday evening, a development that has prompted sterling to slip 0.6% against both the dollar and the euro.

This content was originally published by our partners at Monex Canada.

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