CAD
As Friday trading kicks off, January GDP figures are the one domestic event of note for loonie traders, with expectations for a 0.3% MoM print. While this would mark an uptick from 0.2% growth in December, we would still be inclined to view this as a little disappointing, given what should have been an uplift through the month from a temporary sales tax holiday. Moreover, traders are likely to discount this latest set of readings, barring a huge miss. The economic backdrop for the Canadian economy has changed radically since January, and there is only limited readthrough from events almost two months ago to the current outlook for Canadian growth. This largely lies in the hands of Donald Trump and the prospect of US tariffs. So, while this afternoon’s data might offer a nudge for USDCAD, we still think the key driver remains US trade relations, and that tilts risks to the upside.
USD
The DXY index continues to hover in the low 1.04’s, despite what should be a broadly constructive tariff backdrop. Explaining this, we think markets have been happy so far to price in the growth negative impact of further tariff threats, but cautious on factoring in the dollar positive impact of higher tariff barriers, given this administration’s track record of flip-flopping on previous announcements. That said, this also leaves dollar risks skewed notably to the upside as Trump’s April 2nd “liberation day” deadline approaches. If he fails to announce a rollback in the coming days, then the greenback should strengthen markedly. Before then, however, focus is on PCE data this afternoon, albeit, personal income and spending should be the more important readings, given the lingering concern centred on US growth prospects. Given our broad thesis that US consumers remain resilient, we see risks skewed in favour of a modest beat, adding to our confidence that on balance, the dollar should end the week in the green.
EUR
A whole bunch of data points should euro traders on their toes ahead of the weekend. Already published as of writing, GfK consumer confidence readings for April undershot expectations, as did French and Spanish inflation data for March. If followed by soft readings for German employment and ECB inflation expectations due in the next hours, this should keep EURUSD on a downward trajectory ahead of the weekend, and on track to retrace yesterday’s gains which took the pair temporarily back 1.08.
GBP
Retail sales data published this morning proved somewhat better than expected. Core retail sales grew 1.0% MoM, having been expected to fall by -0.5% in February. While not a game-changer for sterling watchers, it does add to the March PMI reports, suggesting that the UK economy is doing better than many had thought. Not us, though – we have long been in the camp pointing out that fundamentals remain solid below the surface, and that sentiment is skewing the narrative. That said, we also turned tactically bearish on the pound recently, given what is likely to be a further sentiment drag stemming from this week’s mini-budget. So, while GBPUSD is currently trading in the mid-1.29’s on the back of this morning’s data, we see the balance of risks skewed toward a retracement lower for the pair.
This content was originally published by our partners at Monex Canada.