Despite the greenback’s generally excellent performance in the wake of Brexit, the USD/CAD has failed to capitalise on the fallout to the same extent. In fact, a recovery now looks like a fairly shaky premise given the state of the loonie’s technicals.
Specifically, after a consolidating phase, the pair could resume its long-term bullishness and seek to retest recent lows.
First and foremost, there is some strong evidence that the formation of a bearish pennant is underway which could send the loonie reeling upon completion. As shown on the daily chart, the pair has been testing the constraints of the pennant fairly regularly but has been unable to break out.
As things stand, the pennant should complete late July or early August which will subsequently see a breakout to the downside.
Presently, the pair is rallying strongly and poised to test the upside constraint in the next session or two. However, it remains unlikely that the loonie closes above the 1.3090 mark due to the readings on the H4 RSI oscillator.
The RSI is currently neutral but after reaching the upside constraint, the pair will move into overbought territory and cap further gains. As a result, this should help to ensure that the loonie reverses and continues to complete the pennant.
Once the bearish pennant has completed, the pair will likely tumble in an impulse wave or ABC configuration. As shown in the above H4 chart, the impulse wave should see the pair initially sink to the 50.0% Fibonacci level before subsequently retracing to the 76.8% level and finally to the 100.0% level.
As for the corrective ABC pattern, the pair would likely move to the 61.8% Fibonacci level prior to plunging to just above the 100.0% level. The loonie is unlikely to extend far below this however, as it represents a long term low which would need a large fundamental upset to push through.
On the fundamental front, there are a number of important indicator releases which could provide the requisite momentum to see the loonie challenge the upside constraint. Specifically, the Canadian IVEY PMI is due out within the next 48 hours, as is Canada’s Building Permits data. Additionally, the US will be posting its employment figures which could likewise see the pair move to test the pennant’s integrity.
Ultimately, the loonie may not have escaped its long-term downtrend just yet and its attempt to consolidate may end in a tumble. As shown above, there is a fairly evident chart pattern in the works which is signalling that there is some underlying weakness in the pair.
Additionally, unless the US reverses its recent trend of poor result releases, its North American neighbour could continue to pound the pair.