The Canadian dollar has edged higher in the Tuesday session, after three straight losing sessions. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3231, down 0.14% on the day. On the release front, there are no major U.S. indicators and no Canadian events. On Wednesday, the U.S. releases CPI reports.
Nervousness and uncertainty on the part of investors is never good news for the Canadian dollar, as the minor currency is dependent on risk appetite. With global stock markets seeing red over the past few days, the Canadian currency has fallen out of favor, declining close to 1.0% since Thursday. There are no key Canadian events until Friday, so USD/CAD movement will be largely dictated by U.S. consumer inflation and spending reports during the week.
The Fed shows no signs of easing up on interest rate hikes, with Fed policymakers stating that interest rates will continue to rise until the “neutral rate” of between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent is reached. This means we can expect rate hikes once a quarter in 2019, barring a sharp downturn in the economy. The policy of gradual increases is good news for the U.S dollar, as higher interest rates means that the greenback is more attractive to investors. The Bank of Canada has taken a page out of the Federal Reserve’s book, saying that its policy of gradual rate hikes will continue into 2019. The BoC will have to continue raising rates if the Canadian dollar is to hold its own against the strong U.S. dollar.
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USD/CAD Fundamentals
Tuesday (November 12)
- 5:14 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 108.0. Actual 107.4
- 10:00 US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -116.6B
- Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey
Wednesday (November 13)
- 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
- 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
- 18:00 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/CAD for Tuesday, November 14, 2018
USD/CAD, November 14 at 8:40 EST
Open: 1.3250 High: 1.3250 Low: 1.3216 Close: 1.3231
USD/CAD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.2970 | 13099 | 1.3198 | 1.3292 | 1.3383 | 1.3461 |
USD/CAD was down slightly in the Asian session and has recovered in European trade.
- 1.3198 is providing support
- 1.3292 is the next resistance line
- Current range: 1.3198 to 1.3292
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3198, 1.3099, 1.2970 and 1.2831
- Above: 1.3292, 1.3383 and 1.3461
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