Will The BoC Remain Optimistic As Oil Continues To Rebound?

Published 2016-05-25, 01:08 a/m
USD/CAD
-
CL
-

The Victoria Day long weekend has come and gone for traders of the Canadian dollar and we’re back full steam ahead for tonight’s Bank of Canada rate decision.

CA BOC Rate

USD/CAD has rallied hard into tonight’s BoC meeting, but has paused at the previous bullish trend line that price is currently re-testing.

USD/CAD Weekly:
USD/CAD Weekly Chart
With the most previous inflation number beating expectations, the BoC actually has a bit to be positive about heading into the release.

They aren’t expected to cut rates, but any change in tone could see volatility across the various CAD pairs. Will the bank remain optimistic as the price of oil continues to rebound, or will the production lost during the most recent wildfires that swept through Alberta weigh on the country’s bottom line and therefore the bank’s position?

With the amount of uncertainty heading into the release, it’s no surprise that we technically find price sitting right on a significant support/resistance level.

Back in early May, we spoke about the USD/CAD resistance zone that price was approaching at the time. We were in the early stages of the most recent bout of USD strength and momentum was clear.

“With the momentum break and re-test of the major bullish trend line all but erased in barely two daily candles, this horizontal zone might not be the level to be blindly fading into.”

Chalk up another failed textbook pattern.

To make money in this game, you need to be a little smarter than blindly selling breakouts.

USD/CAD Daily:
USD/CAD Daily Chart
However, while it may not have been a textbook breakout and re-test, the support/resistance zone in question did still re-activate on the support side at the marked ‘red x‘.

I’m a little disappointed I didn’t see this one earlier as it gave two long wick chances to get in on the buy side. The second with unbelievably good risk:reward!

Charts of the Day:
What’s a Canadian dollar chart without an accompanying oil chart, right?

Oil Daily:
Oil Daily Chart
Oil has continued to step higher without even the hint of a pull-back. Is that about to change as price touches the following zone?

On the Calendar Wednesday:

Calendar Wednesday

EUR German Ifo Business Climate

CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate

Risk Disclosure: In addition to the website disclaimer below, the material on this page prepared by Vantage FX Forex does not contain a record of our prices, low spreads or solicitation to trade. All opinions, news, research, prices or other information is provided as general news and learn Forex material – not as investment advice. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The experts writers express their personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader. We always aim for maximum accuracy and timeliness, Australian Forex Broker Vantage FX shall not be liable for any loss or damage, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance on this service and its content, inaccurate information or typos. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the report will be achieved, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.