ING Economic and Financial Analysis

With favorable economic data providing officials with greater confidence that US inflation is moving steadily along the right path, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should offer a clearer hint...

The big question for FX markets is whether July’s sharp correction is over. We think events tomorrow (Bank of Japan and Fed meetings) will have a big say. Before then, US JOLTS and consumer...

Brent broke below $80/bbl for the first time since early June as demand concerns linger Energy – Brent Tumbles Below $80/bbl Oil prices have come under further pressure as bearish sentiment has hit...

The BoC cut rates by 25bp to 4.50% and signalled more cuts are likely on the way. The BoC-Fed policy rate gap is at the widest since 2007 (100bp) and markets are doubting a September cut...

Oil prices have come under pressure due to lingering demand concerns, while the copper market has weakened further on the back of rising inventories Energy – Russian Crude Transit Issues Oil prices...

Oil prices continue to trade in a range. Chinese demand concerns continue to cap prices, while Canadian supply risks have reinforced the floor for the market Energy – Canada Wildfire Risk Grows The...

A second 25bp cut is on its way The Bank of Canada kicked off its easing cycle at the 5 June meeting and our sense in the wake of that decision was it would follow up with a further 75bp of rate cuts...

We could see pressure building for additional monetary tightening in some APAC economies in the coming week. Meanwhile, North Asia (ex-China) delivers the monthly activity data dump which should show...

Oil is down, and so is copper after hitting record highs in May. Natural gas prices, however, continue to be supported by supply concerns. Oil market in deficit for the remainder of 2024 Oil prices...

A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend...

US inflation came in at 0.4% MoM for the third consecutive month, more than double the rate we need to consistently hit to bring inflation down to 2% YoY. Expectations for a June Federal Reserve...

Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC’s commentary that suggest should inflation...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

Overcapacity and continued expansion in the smelting industry in China have led to a steep fall in copper treatment charges. Meanwhile, exchange inventories for copper continued to rise, putting...