ING Economic and Financial Analysis

By Padhraic GarveyUS Treasury yields were tracking the probability for a March cut, but now tracking the regional bank performance. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, but markets keep their...

The focus in FX markets today is on whether US employment continues on its benign downward path and represents the economy coming into ‘better balance’. Of interest will be whether...

By Padhraic GarveyWe are a bit surprised the market has not moved more on the Fed’s firm preference for a holding pattern on rates. Bottom line we see pressure for yields to edge higher on a...

The dollar is doing a little better and equity markets are a little softer after the Federal Reserve pushed back against early easing and US regional banks again hit the headlines. Softer CPI trends...

The US seems to be enjoying a virtuous cycle of better-than-expected growth, higher tax receipts, and lower-than-expected borrowing requirements. In contrast, today should see a mild contraction in...

The week ahead is a busy one for financial markets, including key central bank meetings in the UK and US, key data releases (eurozone inflation, US NFP) the US Treasury quarterly refunding...

FX markets continue to trade in a mixed fashion. The dollar is not quite sure whether it wants to rally on resilient US growth prospects or sell off in a world of lower market interest rates. Its path...

By Benjamin SchroederUS 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

The dollar strengthened across the board yesterday with no clear catalyst. We suspect that in an environment that keeps pricing large Fed cuts, USD rallies aren’t very sustainable. We’ll...

The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations...

FX markets start the week in a quiet fashion. The highlight this week will be central bank meetings in many parts of the world, including Japan and the eurozone. No major changes are expected in...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

Tensions in the Middle East continue to linger, however, comments from a Fed official and a surge in the USD yesterday held large parts of the commodity complex backEnergy – Red Sea (NYSE:SE)...

A combination of weak China data and a pushback by both ECB and Fed officials against early easing is weighing on risk sentiment and supporting the dollar. It is hard to see that sentiment changing...

By Benjamin SchroederEUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...