ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Yesterday's strong US January CPI release clearly does not provide the Fed with the confidence it needs to start cutting rates. Instead of powering the next leg of the risk rally, the CPI data has...

Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US CPI print put significant pressure on gold, while oil managed to edge higher with signs of some tightening in the marketEnergy - OPEC Continues to Expect...

Oil prices closed marginally lower yesterday. However, gasoil cracks remain firm, suggesting a tight middle distillate market. Natural gas prices came under pressure on the back of forecasts for...

Gold has been trading in a narrow range so far this year amid a lack of clarity surrounding the timing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing cycle. Higher borrowing costs are typically...

CPI reports in the US and the UK will be in focus this week. We see a greater risk for a lower-than-expected number in the US even though our estimates match consensus, while UK services inflation and...

The oil market rallied as hopes of a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas fadeEnergy - Oil Rallies as Hopes of a Cease-Fire DisappearOil markets rallied yesterday with ICE (NYSE:ICE) Brent settling a...

By Michiel TukkerThe US economy has surprised to the upside over the past few weeks but yields have not shown much reaction to this narrative. We see this as one of the reasons why US yields may test...

Today sees one of the key event risks of the week – the annual US CPI benchmarks revisions. The Fed’s current position is that it is looking for confidence in the disinflation process....

By Benjamin SchroederA lack of notable data releases allows EUR rates to look up again amid hawkish central bank talk. Banking jitters continue to add volatility, but scanning the usual indicators of...

Crude oil prices remain rangebound. However, refinery margins continue to strengthen driven by tightness in middle distillates. Gasoline has also played a role in this strength, with cracks rising on...

US equity benchmarks continue to push higher as most of the big tech stocks close in on bullish target prices. Chinese equities, however, continue to languish as Chinese authorities institute an array...

By Padhraic GarveyThe Fed and the European Central Bank are on holding patterns. Tuesday saw the data vacuum allow yields to drift lower after two days of dramatic rises. Holding patterns can be...

Cross-market volatility levels remain low as expectations of early easing from the Fed ebb and flow. It is another quiet day for the data calendar and calm conditions are seeing yen-funded carry trade...

By Padhraic GarveyUS Treasury yields were tracking the probability for a March cut, but now tracking the regional bank performance. Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside, but markets keep their...

The focus in FX markets today is on whether US employment continues on its benign downward path and represents the economy coming into ‘better balance’. Of interest will be whether...

By Padhraic GarveyWe are a bit surprised the market has not moved more on the Fed’s firm preference for a holding pattern on rates. Bottom line we see pressure for yields to edge higher on a...