ING Economic and Financial Analysis

If anyone was expecting the US election result and UK budget to significantly impact the Fed and BoE policy message, they were let down by two consensus 25bp cuts and rather balanced guidance. In FX,...

The latest UK government budget, which saw big tax rises but even bigger spending increases projected for 2025-26, has forced markets to rethink Bank of England expectations. Rates are expected to...

We expect oil and European gas prices to fall throughout 2025, with both balances looking more comfortable. The macro and geopolitical backdrop suggests there is more upside for gold OPEC+ Delayed...

Commodities are recovering this morning after yesterday’s heavy sell-off on the back of a surge in the US dollar following Trump’s win Energy – Hurricane Rafael Shuts in Oil Production Oil prices...

We are revising our EUR/USD forecast lower following the Republican clean sweep. We assume that Trump will go ahead with both tax cuts and protectionism, with the latter triggering a dovish ECB...

After a day dominated by the resounding success of the Republican party, FX markets today return to the more familiar territory of central bank policy meetings. These take place in the US, UK,...

Oil prices have held relatively steady as the market awaits the outcome of the US election. Energy – Middle Distillate Cracks Continue to Firm Oil prices have held relatively steady as markets await...

Within 24 hours we may or may not know the identity of the 47th president of the United States, but FX options markets have priced in a respectful level of exceptionally high volatility over the...

Markets are seemingly scaling back from a few Trump trades, and we suspect the next two days can see some abnormal swings in US Dollar crosses due to tighter volatility conditions ahead of a closely...

Oil prices are trading stronger this morning after OPEC+ members delayed a supply increase by another month Energy - OPEC Supply Increase Delayed Oil prices are trading stronger this morning with ICE...

It’s been busy in FX markets with surprisingly strong 3Q growth in Europe and an aggressive tax-and-spend budget from the UK Labour government. Eurozone rates and the EUR/USD could stay more...

Economic growth accelerated in the eurozone from 0.2% to 0.4%, in part driven by one-offs. Underlying growth remains sluggish, but there are no signs of the deterioration that the European Central...

Gold climbed to another record high this morning, following an all-time peak just yesterday. Markets are very much focused on next week’s US election Metals – Gold Hits Another Record High Gold...

Growth figures for 3Q are published in the US and eurozone today. German CPI is also expected to have re-accelerated, but the impact on the euro may be limited. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves announces...

The proximity to the US election can favour more deleveraging in FX, raising risks that less liquid currencies will face the pressure reserved for Trump-risk proxies. The US macro calendar picks up...

The oil market sold off aggressively yesterday after Israel’s measured response over the weekend. While it is still not clear if and how Iran will retaliate, the market is clearly of the view that...