ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Oil prices continue to trade in a range. Chinese demand concerns continue to cap prices, while Canadian supply risks have reinforced the floor for the market Energy – Canada Wildfire Risk Grows The...

A second 25bp cut is on its way The Bank of Canada kicked off its easing cycle at the 5 June meeting and our sense in the wake of that decision was it would follow up with a further 75bp of rate cuts...

We could see pressure building for additional monetary tightening in some APAC economies in the coming week. Meanwhile, North Asia (ex-China) delivers the monthly activity data dump which should show...

Oil is down, and so is copper after hitting record highs in May. Natural gas prices, however, continue to be supported by supply concerns. Oil market in deficit for the remainder of 2024 Oil prices...

A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend...

US inflation came in at 0.4% MoM for the third consecutive month, more than double the rate we need to consistently hit to bring inflation down to 2% YoY. Expectations for a June Federal Reserve...

Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC’s commentary that suggest should inflation...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

Overcapacity and continued expansion in the smelting industry in China have led to a steep fall in copper treatment charges. Meanwhile, exchange inventories for copper continued to rise, putting...

January CPI data in Japan confirmed inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2.0% target. The yen “survived” the release, but remains around very weak levels and in FX intervention...

Inventories of base metals and steel increased in China over the last week, reflecting slower demand and ample supply in the short termMetals – Global Steel Output FallsSteel inventories at...

We expect an above-consensus 0.4% core PCE read on Thursday, which should support the dollar this week. Eurozone inflation numbers will also be in focus. We expect a decline in the core rate below...

The Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) led equity rally may now have to face the reality of higher rates, and we suspect high-beta currencies are at risk of corrections. Today, the focus will remain on Germany's...

Even if US yields do slip into the weekend, as is quite possible, there are elements next week that will keep the bear phase element to the fore for bonds (watch core PCE carefully). The ECB simply...