ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The US seems to be enjoying a virtuous cycle of better-than-expected growth, higher tax receipts, and lower-than-expected borrowing requirements. In contrast, today should see a mild contraction in...

The week ahead is a busy one for financial markets, including key central bank meetings in the UK and US, key data releases (eurozone inflation, US NFP) the US Treasury quarterly refunding...

FX markets continue to trade in a mixed fashion. The dollar is not quite sure whether it wants to rally on resilient US growth prospects or sell off in a world of lower market interest rates. Its path...

By Benjamin SchroederUS 5-year auction was rough, but Thursday's core PCE should be tame – what then? Likely yields lower, but only temporarily. The ECB takes centre stage with Lagarde...

By Benjamin SchroederA large sense of anticipation ahead of data dominates thinking, but so too do technical issues like the ongoing unwind of the March rate cut in the US and the rebuild of the...

The dollar strengthened across the board yesterday with no clear catalyst. We suspect that in an environment that keeps pricing large Fed cuts, USD rallies aren’t very sustainable. We’ll...

The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations...

FX markets start the week in a quiet fashion. The highlight this week will be central bank meetings in many parts of the world, including Japan and the eurozone. No major changes are expected in...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets continue to discount early rate cuts, but central banks are pushing back against premature cuts and stressing the data-dependent approach. Long-end rates continue to drift...

Tensions in the Middle East continue to linger, however, comments from a Fed official and a surge in the USD yesterday held large parts of the commodity complex backEnergy – Red Sea (NYSE:SE)...

A combination of weak China data and a pushback by both ECB and Fed officials against early easing is weighing on risk sentiment and supporting the dollar. It is hard to see that sentiment changing...

By Benjamin SchroederEUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing. The message remains consistent – much of the...

Asian equity markets and currencies are under a little pressure today and have cast a slightly risk-off tone across global FX markets. Economic data is light, but we do hear from some central bank...

Spot US natural gas prices spiked higher on Friday on the back of cold weather across large parts of the US. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated following US and UK airstrikes in...

Investors have cemented Fed easing expectations despite some hotter-than-expected US data. We suspect a market reluctant to price out rate cuts will need strong words from the Fed – perhaps...

Geopolitical risks continue to grow in the Middle East with the US and UK carrying out airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen. Potentially more concerning for oil markets is Iran having seized an oil...