CrowdStrike stock rallies as Q3 results ease churn fears, says Evercore

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 2024-11-27, 05:38 a/m
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CRWD
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On Wednesday, Evercore ISI maintained a positive outlook on CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) stock, keeping an Outperform rating and a $400.00 price target. The cybersecurity firm's third-quarter results surpassed expectations, marking a significant recovery since a past service outage. The performance has been seen as a victory for investors, especially considering the concerns of increased customer churn which did not materialize.

The company's third-quarter success was attributed to several factors. Module adoption rates showed sequential growth, with a slight decrease in gross retention to 97%. Additionally, an extension in contract durations contributed to a 66% year-over-year increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) bookings.

CrowdStrike's management aims to accelerate net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in the second half of fiscal year 2026, relying on steady module renewal rates and the expectation that one-time Customer Commitment Packages (CCPs) will convert to full Total (EPA:TTEF) Contract Value (TCV) renewals.

Despite a more optimistic pipeline generation quarter-over-quarter, management remains cautious, factoring in uncertainties into their forecasts. As for the fiscal year revenue guidance, it has been raised by 100 basis points, now expecting growth between 27.5% to 28.5%. The fourth-quarter revenue growth was reported at 22.1%, slightly above the consensus of 21.9%. Operating margins met expectations at 18%.

The report also noted that the dynamics from the CCPs are anticipated to create a divergence from revenue in the upcoming quarters, with an expected $30 million ARR headwind. Additionally, the termination of the Carahsoft deal in October will result in a $32 million headwind for fiscal year 2026, as the deal will not be renewed, though it will still be counted in the revenue for the year but removed from third-quarter ARR. More insight into fiscal year 2026 will be available after fourth-quarter results are released in late February.

In other recent news, CrowdStrike Holdings has showcased a strong financial performance, surpassing consensus forecasts for revenue, annual recurring revenue (ARR), earnings per share (EPS), and free cash flow. Analyst firms such as Cantor Fitzgerald, BMO (TSX:BMO) Capital Markets, DA Davidson, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities, and Oppenheimer have all maintained positive ratings on CrowdStrike, with price targets ranging from $370 to $410. The cybersecurity company's resilience has been emphasized, especially in light of a service disruption in July and other challenges such as upsell pressures, customer care discounts, and longer sales cycles.

Despite these headwinds, CrowdStrike's broader platform adoption, driven by the introduction of the Falcon Flex (NASDAQ:FLEX) offering, is expected to contribute to the company's innovation leadership. Furthermore, the company recently surpassed the $1 billion revenue mark for the third quarter, a 29% increase from the previous year. Its ARR also saw a significant rise, reaching $4.02 billion, marking a 27% growth from the previous year.

CrowdStrike's robust performance is attributed to its strategic initiatives and product offerings, which position the company well for a full recovery and sustained success in the cybersecurity market. The company anticipates accelerating net new ARR growth in the latter half of fiscal year 2026 and aims to reach $10 billion in ARR by fiscal year 2031. These recent developments highlight CrowdStrike's commitment to growth in the cybersecurity market.

InvestingPro Insights

CrowdStrike's strong performance, as highlighted in the article, is further supported by recent InvestingPro data. The company's revenue growth remains robust, with a 33.07% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2025, aligning with the raised fiscal year revenue guidance mentioned in the report. This growth is reflected in the market's positive sentiment, as evidenced by CrowdStrike's impressive 73.42% price return over the past year.

InvestingPro Tips indicate that CrowdStrike is expected to be profitable this year, which corroborates the company's improving financial health discussed in the article. The tip noting that "liquid assets exceed short term obligations" suggests a solid financial position, potentially enabling CrowdStrike to invest in growth initiatives and navigate market uncertainties.

It's worth noting that CrowdStrike is trading at high valuation multiples across various metrics, including earnings, EBIT, and revenue. This premium valuation could be attributed to the company's strong market position and growth prospects in the cybersecurity sector. Investors considering CrowdStrike should be aware that there are 13 additional InvestingPro Tips available, which could provide further insights into the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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