On Monday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded Cloudflare Inc . (NYSE: NYSE:NET) stock, citing several growth factors that could accelerate revenue throughout 2025. The firm changed its rating from Equal-weight to Overweight and increased the price target to $130.00, up from the previous $92.00. This upgrade aligns with broader analyst sentiment, as InvestingPro data shows 21 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations upward, while the company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 77.5%.
The upgrade comes with a positive outlook on Cloudflare's potential, as the company is poised to benefit from multiple product cycles, a growing Edge AI contribution, and a fully ramped enterprise sales force. These elements are expected to align favorably for Cloudflare, potentially leading to an acceleration in revenue growth over the next year. Recent performance supports this outlook, with InvestingPro data showing strong revenue growth of 30% over the last twelve months and a robust financial health rating of GOOD.
Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that Cloudflare could maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% in revenue from calendar year 2023 through 2028, reaching $5 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), which would equate to $4.4 billion in revenue with a free cash flow (FCF) margin of over 25%. The firm's price target is based on a 50X enterprise value to free cash flow (EV/FCF) multiple, which is in line with Cloudflare's growth-oriented large-cap peers such as CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) Inc., ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW) Inc., Datadog Inc (NASDAQ:DDOG)., and Snowflake Inc . (NYSE:SNOW)
The new price target of $130.00 reflects approximately 18 times Cloudflare's expected enterprise value to 2026 sales. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley's bull case scenario sets a price target of $175, assuming Cloudflare captures a larger share of the Edge AI inference market, leading to a revenue CAGR greater than 30% through 2028, which is 10-20% above consensus forecasts for the outer years.
This scenario would solidify Cloudflare's position as one of the few enterprise software companies growing top-line revenue by over 30% at scale. For a deeper analysis of Cloudflare's valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro, which covers over 1,400 US stocks with detailed metrics and expert insights.
In other recent news, Cloudflare, Inc. has reported a robust growth in its third-quarter earnings, with a 28% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $430.1 million. The company has also seen a significant rise in its customer base, which now stands at 3,265, marking a 28% increase from the previous year. This growth is bolstered by Cloudflare's strategic involvement in cybersecurity efforts and its focus on enterprise sales, which has resulted in substantial contracts, including a $7 million deal with an AI company and a $4.2 million contract with a Fortune 100 tech firm.
In terms of future prospects, Cloudflare anticipates continued growth in sales capacity and productivity. Revenue projections for Q4 2023 indicate a 25% year-over-year increase, with projected revenue between $451 million and $452 million. The company also expects full-year 2024 revenue to be between $1.661 billion and $1.662 billion.
Cloudflare's financial performance is further supported by a strong gross margin of 78.8% and a net income of $72.6 million. The company also revealed a free cash flow of $45.3 million, with $1.8 billion in cash reserves.
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