Oil prices dip on looming OPEC production rise

Published 2016-04-28, 09:17 p/m
© Reuters.  Oil prices dip on looming OPEC production rise
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* Large UAE oil field outages to end this month -Deutsche
* But weakening dollar, falling U.S. output still support
market

By Henning Gloystein
SINGAPORE, April 29 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices fell in
early trading on Friday as a looming rise in Middle East output
may drag on the stronger markets seen in April, although falling
U.S. production and a weakening dollar are still offering
support.
International benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were
trading at $47.69 per barrel at 0101 GMT, down almost half a
dollar and a percentage point from their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were
down 19 cents at 45.46 a barrel.
Both contracts remained near 2016 highs of $48.19 and $46.14
per barrel respectively, and WTI's smaller fall was a result of
declining U.S. crude output, traders said.
Despite Friday's dips, Brent and WTI are up almost a third
from April troughs and are over 75 percent above their 2016
lows, lifted by falling output and a weaker dollar, which has
fallen almost 6 percent against a basket of other leading
currencies .DXY this year. That makes dollar-traded oil
cheaper to buy for countries using other currencies at home,
potentially spurring demand.
"Moves in currency markets continue to be a big driver of
commodity prices," ANZ Bank said.
"Another fall in the U.S. oil rig count points to further
weakness in output."
But Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) said that a looming rise in production by
members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) - with climbing Iranian output and following outages in
Iraq, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates - could cap recent
oil price rises.
"A sustainable rise in OPEC production may be just around
the corner, and ... the rally may pause," the bank said in a
note to clients.
"Maintenance in the UAE at fields ... is scheduled to end in
April, implying a rise from current production of 2.73 million
barrels per day (bpd) to the previous 2.91 million bpd
production rate in May," Deutsche said.
For 2017, the bank said it expected to be around 33.1
million bpd, "with upside risks originating from Libya and Saudi
Arabia, and downside risks from unplanned outages and spending
cuts in Iraq".

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GRAPHIC on oil price rally http://tmsnrt.rs/1pMzafo
GRAPHIC on dollar weakness http://tmsnrt.rs/1NEnmXX
GRAPHIC on U.S. crude oil production http://tmsnrt.rs/244AKvS
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