Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell over 3% on Friday, following the crude market lower after President Donald Trump tested positive for the coronavirus and U.S. negotiators failed to agree on a new economic stimulus package.
Traders noted that gas prices were also pressured by continued weakness in cash NG-W-HH-SNL prices, which have traded below futures since August, and forecasts for milder weather and less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
With all the bearish news, the market ignored a small decline in gas output and continued increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 were down 8.9 cents, or 3.5%, at $2.438 per million British thermal units at 9:16 a.m. EDT (1316 GMT).
For the week, the contract was still up about 14% after rising 4% last week.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 86.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from a four-month low of 87.2 bcfd in September.
Those production declines come as low prices earlier in the year due to coronavirus demand destruction caused energy firms to shut wells and cut back on new drilling so much that output from new wells was no longer able to offset declines from existing wells. RIG/U
With cooler weather coming, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from 83.3 bcfd this week to 85.6 bcfd next week and 85.7 bcfd in two weeks. That, however, was lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 6.7 bcfd so far in October, up from 5.7 bcfd in September. Traders expect LNG exports to keep rising as Cameron and Cove Point return over the next week or two and rising global gas prices prompt buyers to reverse some earlier planned cargo cancellations. ended
Week ended
Year ago Five-year
Oct 2
Sep 25
Oct 2
average
(Forecast)
(Actual)
Oct 2
U.S. natgas storage (bcf):
+77
+76
+102
+86
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year 10-Year
30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
87
96
75
73
105 U.S. GFS CDDs
57
59
99
72
50 U.S. GFS TDDs
144
145
174
145
155
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week Next Week This Week
Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
85.6
86.6
86.9
94.4
80.1 U.S. Imports from Canada
5.5
5.9
6.3
7.6
7.6 U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2 Total U.S. Supply
91.1
92.6
93.2
102.0
87.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.2
1.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
4.5 U.S. LNG Exports
5.7
6.4
7.4
6.3
2.3 U.S. Commercial
5.2
5.3
6.1
5.3
6.7 U.S. Residential
4.7
4.9
6.3
4.9
7.0 U.S. Power Plant
30.9
30.5
29.2
34.3
26.8 U.S. Industrial
21.6
21.8
22.1
21.4
21.0 U.S. Plant Fuel
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 Total U.S. Consumption
68.6
68.8
70.0
72.0
67.7 Total U.S. Demand
82.4
83.3
85.6
86.4
76.4
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
1.60
1.66
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
0.71
0.95
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.63
3.82
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL
0.52
0.98
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
1.28
1.43
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
0.74
1.06
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.48
4.21
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
0.34
0.73
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL
18.50
19.00
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL
17.75
19.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL
14.00
19.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL
29.03
42.64
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL
60.25
70.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL
62.50
102.00